Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 2, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (September 2, 2026) was a 84% implied probability for Umar Nurmagomedov on Kalshi.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Umar Nurmagomedov — market favorite
Kalshi
84%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Fight Night
8 categories priced
Still contested
6
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Tsuruya vs Borjas: Odds
Tsuruya vs Borjas: Oddssettled
Contested- Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas88%
- Rei Tsuruya88%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds76%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds52%
- Fight won by submission?43%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds42%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Nurmagomedov vs Song: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 1.5 Rounds85%
- Umar Nurmagomedov84%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds80%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds79%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds73%
- Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov18%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Yan vs Gomes: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds77%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds73%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds71%
- Fight to Go the Distance?69%
- Xiaonan Yan59%
- Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes56%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Batbayar vs Lima: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds77%
- Andre (Bra) Lima71%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds43%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?40%
- Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima30%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Jenkins vs Woodson: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds80%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds74%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds62%
- Sean Woodson59%
- Sean Woodson vs. Jack Jenkins57%
- Fight to Go the Distance?56%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Hasan vs Rojas: Oddssettled
Contested- Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas99%
- Bilal Hasan90%
- Hasan to win by KO/TKO?68%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds50%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds50%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds41%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Meng vs Nelson: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds77%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds60%
- Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson59%
- Ding Meng59%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds48%
- Cameron Nelson43%
+17 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Liu vs Rodrigues Jr: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- Fight won by KO/TKO?80%
- Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr.62%
- CE Liu61%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds61%
- Ce to win by KO/TKO?53%
- Levi Rodrigues Jr40%
+18 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled September 2, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Moneyline | Polymarket | 18% | $577.9K |
Nurmagomedov to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 12% | $1.9K |
Yadong to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 6% | $1.1K |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 85% | $50 |
Umar Nurmagomedov | Kalshi | 84% | 965.4K contracts |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 80% | $2 |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 79% | — |
O/U 3.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 73% | $91 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 30/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | The event combines unlike venue-native volume units. W.E.T. does not add contracts to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Umar Nurmagomedov at 84% implied probability on Kalshi.
- Dollar volume and contract counts were not combined into a synthetic event total.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 84% implied probability for Umar Nurmagomedov on Kalshi.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Umar Nurmagomedov at 84% — favored, but not a lock. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; no mixed total is published.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 84% for Umar Nurmagomedov. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song: Odds?
The market closed with Umar Nurmagomedov at 84% implied probability on Kalshi. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song: Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 84% for Umar Nurmagomedov. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/fight-night-nurmagomedov-vs-song-odds-2026-08-30?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=fight-night-nurmagomedov-vs-song-odds-2026-08-30">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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