Fight Night: Bonfim vs Sola: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated July 28, 2026
Final prediction market odds for Fight Night: Bonfim vs Sola: Odds: Axel Sola closed at 65% implied probability on one venue listing. Settled-market…
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Fight Night
13 categories priced
Still contested
9
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Kuniev vs Fortune: Odds
Kuniev vs Fortune: Oddssettled
Contested- Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune76%
- Rizvan Kuniev76%
- Fight to Go the Distance?53%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?38%
- Kuniev to win by KO/TKO?34%
- Tyrell Fortune26%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev: Oddssettled
Contested- Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev69%
- Abubakar Vagaev69%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds67%
- Fight to Go the Distance?62%
- Saygid Izagakhmaev32%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?18%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Zaynukov vs Rzepecki: Oddssettled
Contested- Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki71%
- Magomed Zaynukov71%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds68%
- Fight to Go the Distance?49%
- Zaynukov to win by KO/TKO?31%
- Damian Rzepecki30%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Jacoby vs Said: Oddssettled
Contested- Dustin Jacoby64%
- Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said63%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?57%
- Fight to Go the Distance?39%
- Muhammad Said38%
- Jacoby to win by KO/TKO?35%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Bonfim vs Sola: Oddssettled
Contested- Axel Sola65%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds63%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds50%
- Fight to Go the Distance?43%
- Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola37%
- Sola to win by KO/TKO?37%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Ankalaev vs Guskov: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds85%
- Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov83%
- Magomed Ankalaev82%
- Ankalaev to win by KO/TKO?59%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds47%
- Fight to Go the Distance?23%
+2 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Aliev vs Davis: Oddssettled
Contested- Nurullo Aliev69%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds65%
- Fight to Go the Distance?62%
- Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev33%
- Mike Davis33%
- Fight won by submission?16%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Walker vs Petersen: Oddssettled
Contested- Valter Walker63%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds58%
- Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker38%
- Thomas Petersen38%
- Fight won by submission?38%
- Fight to Go the Distance?38%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Erceg vs Temirov: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 2.5 Rounds62%
- Fight to Go the Distance?54%
- Ramazonbek Temirov52%
- Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg50%
- Steve Erceg49%
- Temirov to win by KO/TKO?30%
+8 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Tuchalov vs Ribeiro: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- Magomed Tuchalov89%
- Tuchalov to win by KO/TKO?69%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?67%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds32%
- Brendson Ribeiro13%
- Brendson Ribeiro vs. Magomed Tuchalov12%
+20 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Gibson vs Hussein: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- Abdul Hussein86%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds38%
- Fight to Go the Distance?33%
- Hussein to win by KO/TKO?28%
- Cody Gibson vs. Abdul Hussein16%
+30 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Ponzinibbio vs Patterson: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- Sam Patterson82%
- Patterson to win by KO/TKO?49%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds48%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?48%
- Fight to Go the Distance?26%
- Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson20%
+33 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Dulatov vs Turman: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- Islam Dulatov89%
- Dulatov to win by KO/TKO?51%
- Turman to win by KO/TKO?50%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds50%
- Fight to Go the Distance?50%
- Fight won by submission?50%
+38 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 28, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola Moneyline | Polymarket | 37% | $32.8K |
Sola to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 37% | $30 |
Bonfim to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 14% | — |
Axel Sola | Kalshi | 65% | 141K contracts |
Ismael Bonfim | Kalshi | 36% | 121.7K contracts |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 50% | $1.9K |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 43% | $158 |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 63% | $5 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 20/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
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Key takeaways
- Final market read: Axel Sola at 65% implied probability on one venue listing.
- The odds moved from 64% at the start of coverage to 65% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 65% implied probability for Axel Sola on one venue listing.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Axel Sola at 65% — favored, but not a lock. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; W.E.T. publishes no mixed event total.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 5 days: Axel Sola opened our coverage at 64%, ranged between 64% and 65%, and closed at 65%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Bonfim vs Sola: Odds?
The market closed with Axel Sola at 65% implied probability on one venue listing. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Bonfim vs Sola: Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 65% for Axel Sola. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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