Fight Night: Amaya vs Machado: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 29, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (September 29, 2026) was a 69% implied probability for Decision or Draw on Polymarket.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Decision or Draw — market favorite
Polymarket
69%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Fight Night
10 categories priced
Still contested
6
inside 15 points
Tightest
+4
Demopoulos vs Jauregui: Odds
Demopoulos vs Jauregui: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds91%
- Yazmin Jauregui87%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds72%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds63%
- Decision or Draw61%
- Jauregui to win by KO/TKO?26%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Hernandez vs Dumas: Oddssettled
Contested- Luis Hernandez69%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds63%
- Decision or Draw50%
- Dumas in Round 250%
- Dumas in Round 350%
- Dumas to win by KO/TKO?32%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Hiestand vs Nakamura: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds85%
- Rinya Nakamura76%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds65%
- Ends before Round 3?48%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds48%
- Nakamura to win by KO/TKO?42%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Amaya vs Machado: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds93%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds81%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds71%
- Decision or Draw69%
- Fight to Go the Distance?69%
- Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya66%
+12 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Rosas Jr vs Barcelos: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds93%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds81%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds71%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds61%
- Raul Rosas Jr59%
- Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr.42%
+12 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Osmanli vs Uulu: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds85%
- Mehemmedeli Osmanli72%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds61%
- Ends before Round 3?49%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds46%
- Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli28%
+13 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Jackson vs Simon: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds90%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds74%
- Montel Jackson67%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds65%
- Decision or Draw58%
- Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson33%
+16 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Vieira vs Bryczek: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds79%
- Rodolfo Vieira61%
- Ends before Round 3?58%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- Robert Bryczek40%
- Robert Bryczek vs. Rodolfo Vieira39%
+18 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Harrell vs Brener: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds89%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds70%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds55%
- Josiah Harrell53%
- Decision or Draw47%
- Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell46%
+19 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Bellato vs Edwards: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds84%
- Rodolfo Bellato64%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds60%
- Ends before Round 3?48%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?46%
- Christian Edwards vs. Rodolfo Bellato37%
+20 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled September 29, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya Moneyline | Polymarket | 66% | $3.3K |
Machado to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 18% | — |
Amaya to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 12% | — |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 93% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 81% | — |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 71% | $835 |
Decision or Draw | Polymarket | 69% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 69% | — |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 22/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Decision or Draw at 69% implied probability on Polymarket.
- Dollar volume and contract counts were not combined into a synthetic event total.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 69% implied probability for Decision or Draw on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Decision or Draw at 69% — favored, but not a lock. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; no mixed total is published.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 69% for Decision or Draw. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Fight Night: Amaya vs Machado: Odds?
The market closed with Decision or Draw at 69% implied probability on Polymarket. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Fight Night: Amaya vs Machado: Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 69% for Decision or Draw. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/fight-night-amaya-vs-machado-odds-2026-09-27?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=fight-night-amaya-vs-machado-odds-2026-09-27">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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