Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series
By Corbin V King · Updated September 16, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (September 16, 2026) was a 39% implied probability for Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” on Polymarket, with $72.5K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” — market favorite
Polymarket · $72.5K reported volume
39%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Emmys 2026
14 categories priced
Still contested
4
inside 15 points
Tightest
+4
Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series
Outstanding guest actor in a comedy seriessettled
Contested- Rob Reiner – “The Bear”41%
- Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking”37%
- Christopher McDonald – “Hacks”7%
- Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay”7%
- Connor Storrie – “Saturday Night Live”6%
- Brett Goldstein – “Shrinking”5%
+4 pt margin · 6 nominees
Outstanding supporting actor in a dramasettled
Contested- Tom Pelphrey – “Task”42%
- Patrick Ball – “The Pitt”36%
- Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt”13%
- Jack Lowden – “Slow Horses”5%
- Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show”5%
- Carlos-Manuel Vesga – “Pluribus”2%
+6 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Outstanding supporting actor in a comedysettled
Contested- Harrison Ford – “Shrinking”45%
- Stephen Root – “Widow’s Bay”32%
- Paul W. Downs – “Hacks”13%
- Michael Urie – “Shrinking”7%
- Nick Offerman – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”4%
- Colman Domingo – “The Four Seasons”4%
+13 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Outstanding guest actress in a comedy seriessettled
Contested- Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay”38%
- Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks”25%
- Laurie Metcalf – “Hacks”14%
- Jamie Lee Curtis – “The Bear”10%
- Cherry Jones – “Hacks”8%
- Leslie Bibb – “Hacks”4%
+13 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Outstanding lead actress in a limited orsettled
Clear favourite- Carey Mulligan – “Beef”42%
- Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault”24%
- Sally Field – “Remarkably Bright Creatures”15%
- Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”11%
- Claire Danes – “The Beast In Me”4%
+18 pt margin · 5 nominees
Outstanding guest actor in a drama seriessettled
Clear favourite- Colman Domingo – “Euphoria”39%
- Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt”14%
- Bradley Whitford – “The Diplomat”12%
- Jeff Kober – “The Pitt”9%
- Jeff Hiller – “Pluribus”7%
- Jonathan Pryce – “Slow Horses”3%
+25 pt margin · 6 nominees
Outstanding comedy seriessettled
Clear favourite- “Widow’s Bay”60%
- “Hacks”34%
- “Abbott Elementary”2%
- “The Bear”1%
- “Nobody Wants This”1%
- “Shrinking”1%
+26 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Outstanding guest actress in a drama seriessettled
Clear favourite- Shailene Woodley – “Paradise”51%
- Brittany Allen – “The Pitt”21%
- Miriam Shor – “Pluribus”8%
- Tal Anderson – “The Pitt”8%
- Merritt Wever – “The Gilded Age”8%
- Tina Ivlev – “The Pitt”5%
+30 pt margin · 6 nominees
Outstanding lead actor in a limited orsettled
Decided- Oscar Isaac – “Beef”66%
- Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me”19%
- Riz Ahmed – “Bait”9%
- Jason Bateman – “Black Rabbit”5%
- Charlie Hunnam – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”3%
+47 pt margin · 5 nominees
Outstanding supporting actress in a dramasettled
Decided- Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt”70%
- Sepideh Moafi – “The Pitt”11%
- Karolina Wydra – “Pluribus”10%
- Allison Janney – “The Diplomat”5%
- Julianne Nicholson – “Paradise”4%
- Taylor Dearden – “The Pitt”2%
+59 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
Outstanding variety seriessettled
Decided- “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”71%
- “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”12%
- “The Daily Show”9%
- “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”5%
- “Saturday Night Live”2%
+59 pt margin · 5 nominees
Outstanding supporting actress in a limitedsettled
Decided- Linda Cardellini – “DTF St. Louis”79%
- Constance Zimmer – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette”9%
- Youn Yuh-jung – “Beef”5%
- Dakota Fanning – “All Her Fault”4%
- Laurie Metcalf – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”4%
- Joy Sunday – “DTF St. Louis”2%
+70 pt margin · 6 nominees
Outstanding variety special (live)settled
Decided- The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny91%
- The Oscars6%
- The Tonys3%
- The Golden Globes1%
- The Grammys1%
+85 pt margin · 5 nominees
Outstanding lead actress in a comedy seriessettled
Decided- Jean Smart – “Hacks”91%
- Elle Fanning – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”4%
- Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback”4%
- Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary”2%
- Ayo Edebiri – “The Bear”1%
+87 pt margin · 5 nominees
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled September 16, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” | Polymarket | 39% | $43K |
Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” | Polymarket | 14% | $10.7K |
Bradley Whitford – “The Diplomat” | Polymarket | 12% | $7.6K |
Jeff Kober – “The Pitt” | Polymarket | 9% | $5.1K |
Jeff Hiller – “Pluribus” | Polymarket | 7% | $3.7K |
Jonathan Pryce – “Slow Horses” | Polymarket | 3% | $2.5K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 38/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 19/30 | $72.5K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 9/15 | 6 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
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Key takeaways
- Final market read: Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” at 39% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The attributed event snapshot reports $73K in venue-native volume before close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 39% implied probability for Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” closed at just 39%. The attributed event snapshot reports $73K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 39% for Colman Domingo – “Euphoria”. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Entertainment odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?
The market closed with Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” at 39% implied probability on Polymarket. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 39% for Colman Domingo – “Euphoria”. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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