Delaware Republican Senate Primary Winner — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 17, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (September 17, 2026) was a 88% implied probability for Michael Katz on Polymarket, with $66.7K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Michael Katz — market favorite
Polymarket · $66.7K reported volume
88%
Implied
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled September 17, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Michael Katz | Polymarket | 88% | $14.4K |
John Shulli | Polymarket | 12% | $52.3K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 47/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 18/30 | $66.7K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 3/15 | 2 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 8/15 | 5 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (1)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- What to watch in the US’s Delaware primary elections
Al Jazeera · Sep 15, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Michael Katz at 88% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 93% at the start of coverage to 88% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 88% implied probability for Michael Katz on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Michael Katz at 88% — favored, but not a lock. The attributed event snapshot reports $67K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 5 days: Michael Katz opened our coverage at 93%, ranged between 82% and 93%, and closed at 88%. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Elections odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Delaware Republican Senate Primary Winner — Odds?
The market closed with Michael Katz at 88% implied probability on Polymarket. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Delaware Republican Senate Primary Winner — Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 88% for Michael Katz. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/delaware-republican-senate-primary-winner-odds-2026-09-15?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=delaware-republican-senate-primary-winner-odds-2026-09-15">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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