Clacton by-election: 2nd place — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated August 15, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 15, 2026) was a 96% implied probability for Count Binface on Polymarket, with $646.3K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Count Binface — market favorite
Polymarket · $646.3K reported volume
96%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
Clacton by-election
4 categories priced
Still contested
0
inside 15 points
Tightest
+16
Turnout
Turnoutsettled
Clear favourite- 20k-30k56%
- 30k-40k40%
- 10k-20k2%
- 40k-50k2%
- 60k+1%
- 50k-60k1%
+16 pt margin · 7 nominees · 1 more
2nd placesettled
Decided- Count Binface96%
- Nigel Farage1%
- Laurence Fox1%
- William Clouston1%
- John Stevens1%
- Giles Watling1%
+95 pt margin · 17 nominees · 11 more
Margin of Victorysettled
Decided- Farage 20-40%99%
- Farage 60%+1%
- Farage 40-60%1%
- Farage <20%1%
- Other1%
- Count Binface1%
+98 pt margin · 6 nominees
Count Binface Vote %settled
Decided- Binface 20–30%99%
- Binface <10%1%
- Binface 10–20%1%
- Binface 30–40%1%
- Binface 40%+1%
+98 pt margin · 5 nominees
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 15, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Count Binface | Polymarket | 96% | $492.2K |
Nigel Farage | Polymarket | 1% | $87.3K |
Laurence Fox | Polymarket | 1% | $18.8K |
William Clouston | Polymarket | 1% | $9.5K |
John Stevens | Polymarket | 1% | $7K |
Giles Watling | Polymarket | 1% | $4.4K |
Matthew Bensilum | Polymarket | 1% | $3.8K |
Andrew Pemberton | Polymarket | 1% | $3K |
Natasha Osben | Polymarket | 1% | $2.9K |
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul | Polymarket | 1% | $2.9K |
Kai Stephens | Polymarket | 1% | $2.7K |
Tony Mack | Polymarket | 1% | $2.5K |
Luke Worley | Polymarket | 1% | $2.4K |
Rees Cowne | Polymarket | 1% | $2K |
Piers Corbyn | Polymarket | 1% | $1.9K |
Adham Alkhatip | Polymarket | 1% | $1.8K |
Pamela Walford | Polymarket | 1% | $1.3K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 51/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 28/30 | $646.3K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 17 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
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Key takeaways
- Final market read: Count Binface at 96% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 79% at the start of coverage to 96% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 96% implied probability for Count Binface on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: Count Binface at 96% implied probability. The attributed event snapshot reports $646.3K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 16 days: Count Binface opened our coverage at 79%, ranged between 79% and 99%, and closed at 96%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Elections odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Clacton by-election: 2nd place?
The market closed with Count Binface at 96% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Clacton by-election: 2nd place right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 96% for Count Binface. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/clacton-by-election-2nd-place-odds-2026-08-13?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=clacton-by-election-2nd-place-odds-2026-08-13">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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