ElectionsSun 3:00 PM

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?

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The Market Read

Futuur prices “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?” at 48% — a coin flip.

$6.1K in venue-reported volume. One venue-attributed observation; no cross-market aggregate.

Futuur markets1Futuur volume$6.1KEvent venuesFutuurKalshiPolymarketFutuurchecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

Open the Newsroom →

Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead, remains tied with Bolsonaro in runoff polls

Reuters · 11h ago

Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest

Chatham House · 12h ago

Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Candidates: Lula, Bolsonaro, and Other Top Contenders

AS/COA · 4d ago

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Al Jazeera · 4d ago

‘Viscerally dedicated to social issues’: behind Lula’s drive to win final term in Brazil’s crunch election

The Guardian · 2d ago

Lula battles for Brazil’s northeast against Flavio Bolsonaro

Buenos Aires Times · 6h ago

Lula da Silva or Flavio Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote

dw.com · 3d ago

Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead; runoff with Bolsonaro stays tight, BTG/Nexus poll shows

Yahoo News Singapore · 14h ago

Scanning the wire…

Markets on this event

One outcome · all venue odds · open listing details

Aligned outcomes share one row. Each quote retains its venue and observation time. NO marks the opposite contract side; measurement, cutoff, settlement rules and fees can differ.

Candidates

21Futuur · Kalshi · Polymarket

Aldo Rebelo

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Augusto Cury

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Eduardo Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Fernando Haddad

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Flávio Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi56.5%00:53 UTCPolymarket57.9%00:53 UTC

Jair Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

3 venues · Terms may differ

Futuur48%00:53 UTCKalshi43.5%00:53 UTCPolymarket41.5%00:53 UTC

Michelle Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Ratinho Júnior

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Renan Santos

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.9%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.4%00:53 UTC

Romeu Zema

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Ronaldo Caiado

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Tarcísio de Freitas

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%00:53 UTCPolymarket0.1%00:53 UTC

Camilo Santana

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·$5.6M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Ciro Gomes

Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·238 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Eduardo Leite

Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·$8M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Geraldo Alckmin

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·$7M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Helder Barbalho

Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·$2.4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Pablo Marçal

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·$4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Tereza Cristina

Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·$4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Outcomes

15Futuur · Kalshi

Renan Santos

Will Renan Santos qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·5.6K contracts vol

Yes 2%No 98%

Flavio Bolsonaro

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·5.1K contracts vol

Yes 98%No 2%

Ronaldo Caiado

Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·4.3K contracts vol

Yes 2%No 98%

Michelle Bolsonaro

Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·2.6K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·2K contracts vol

Yes 96%No 4%

Romeu Zema

Will Romeu Zema qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 00:53 UTC·63 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Aldo Rebelo

Brazil’s Next President Elect