WSCO2

Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print59 held · close 2026-11-05
1052.56+5.26%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
1052.56
Since inception
+5.26%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
47.5% of 59
1 day
+0.11%
7 day
+0.21%
Markets held
59
Settled
1
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
47.5%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
53

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 59 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91c20 sessions stale88c−3.3%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92c4 sessions stale94c+1.8%↗
  • Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 90c93c+3.4%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95c97c+2.8%↗
  • Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 93c96c+3.9%↗
  • Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 97c97c−0.2%↗
  • Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 73c20 sessions stale64c−12.4%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95c96c+1.1%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 14c13 sessions stale13c−4.8%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92c93c+1.1%↗
  • Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 87c89c+3.1%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92c96c+4.3%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95c4 sessions stale93c−1.4%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 6c10 sessions stale12c+110.0%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 91c96c+5.4%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 91c94c+3.3%↗
  • Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 74c17 sessions stale77c+4.8%↗
  • Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 79c37c−53.2%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 2c2c−25.0%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 65c69c+6.2%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 84c4 sessions stale84c0.0%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 85c81c−4.7%↗
  • Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 88c31 sessions stale97c+10.0%↗
  • Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30c89c+201.7%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 85c92c+7.6%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 74c4 sessions stale71c−4.1%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92c4 sessions stale95c+3.4%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 8c2c−80.0%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 74c86c+15.5%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 36c40c+11.1%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 93c2 sessions stale95c+1.6%↗
  • Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95c96c+0.5%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 27c13 sessions stale6c−78.3%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 46c22c−52.7%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94c4 sessions stale95c+1.0%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 66c64c−3.1%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30c34c+12.3%↗
  • Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 83c8 sessions stale52c−36.8%↗
  • Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 89c46c−48.3%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 63c4 sessions stale75c+19.2%↗
  • Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 61c20 sessions stale39c−36.4%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94c4 sessions stale95c+0.7%↗
  • Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 29c20 sessions stale14c−50.0%↗
  • Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 56c4 sessions stale84c+50.0%↗
  • Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 13c87c+596.0%↗
  • Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 18c4.0¢ spread · 334/660 within 5¢81c+350.0%↗
  • Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 33c20 sessions stale21c−35.4%↗
  • Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 9c87c+870.0%↗
  • Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95c31 sessions stale99c+4.8%↗
  • Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 76c93c+22.7%↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 59 constituents by weight.

Settled · 1

graded outcomes — the basket's realized record
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?yes−100.0%

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 59

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent
89.36%
Π of the individual probabilities
True range · any correlation
88.9–96.8%
Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 7.9pp wide
NOWill the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?99%
NOWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?99%
NOWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?97%
NOWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?97%
NOWill the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?97%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.