Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months — the basket
SlateExperimentalStandingThe real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 987.77
- Since inception
- −1.22%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 85.0% of 60
- 1 day
- −1.64%
- 7 day
- −0.31%
- Markets held
- 60
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 50.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 18
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 60 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c69c−23.8%8.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c93c+1.0%4.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 90cpolymarketNO90c96c+6.1%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c90c−5.3%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 93cpolymarketNO93c96c+3.2%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c97c−0.5%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 73cpolymarketNO73c68c−6.9%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c96c+0.5%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 14cpolymarketNO14c16c+18.9%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c94c+2.2%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 87cpolymarketNO87c87c+0.1%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 56c2.0¢ spread · 125/168 within 5¢polymarketNO56c58c+2.7%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c96c+4.5%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c92c−3.1%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 6cpolymarketNO6c13c+127.3%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c79c−13.2%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 91ckalshiNO91c80c−12.2%2.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 74cpolymarketNO74c61c−17.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 79cpolymarketNO79c72c−9.5%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 2c2 sessions stalekalshiNO2c2c−25.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 65ckalshiNO65c55c−14.7%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 84cpolymarketNO84c83c−1.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 85cpolymarketNO85c78c−7.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 88cpolymarketNO88c56c−35.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c28c−6.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 85ckalshiNO85c87c+1.8%1.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 74cpolymarketNO74c67c−9.5%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 92cpolymarketNO92c88c−4.4%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 8ckalshiNO8c5c−40.0%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 74ckalshiNO74c78c+4.7%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 36ckalshiNO36c39c+8.3%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 93ckalshiNO93c53c−43.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95ckalshiNO95c88c−7.9%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 27cpolymarketNO27c20c−27.4%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 46cpolymarketNO46c28c−39.6%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c95c+1.2%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 66cpolymarketNO66c61c−7.6%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 30cpolymarketNO30c19c−37.0%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 83cpolymarketNO83c79c−4.3%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?polymarket · NO · entry 89cpolymarketNO89c83c−6.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 63cpolymarketNO63c51c−19.2%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 61cpolymarketNO61c60c−1.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c93c−1.6%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 29cpolymarketNO29c36c+22.4%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 56cpolymarketNO56c59c+4.5%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 13cpolymarketNO13c26c+108.0%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 18c1.0¢ spread · 1.8k/741 within 5¢polymarketNO18c34c+86.1%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c49c+49.2%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 9cpolymarketNO9c12c+27.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c91c−3.4%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 60 constituents by weight.
All markets resolve YES · 5 of 60
a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhereThe chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.
The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.
Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.
This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.
How to read this
The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.
This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.