Score — Tech Science, inside six months — the basket
SlateExperimentalStandingThe real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 997.41
- Since inception
- −0.26%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 47.5% of 59
- 1 day
- +0.02%
- 7 day
- +0.19%
- Markets held
- 59
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 52.9%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 53
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 59 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c13c+31.6%8.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 8c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c6c−22.4%4.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 10cpolymarketYES10c7c−30.5%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c3c−48.2%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c4c−48.7%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c+5.2%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 28c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c37c+32.7%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c4c−23.0%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 87c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES87c87c+0.8%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c8c−11.8%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c11c−20.2%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c4c−49.4%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 5c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c7c+25.5%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 95c10 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c88c−6.4%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c4c−54.4%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 10ckalshiYES10c7c−31.6%2.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 27c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES27c23c−13.2%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 21cpolymarketYES21c63c+200.0%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+0.5%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 36ckalshiYES36c32c−11.3%1.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 16c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c16c0.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 16cpolymarketYES16c20c+25.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 12c31 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c3c−73.3%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 71cpolymarketYES71c11c−84.4%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 15ckalshiYES15c9c−43.3%1.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 27c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES27c30c+11.3%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 9c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c5c−36.5%1.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c99c+6.5%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c14c−44.2%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 64ckalshiYES64c60c−6.3%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 7c2 sessions stalekalshiYES7c6c−21.4%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c5c−10.0%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 73c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES73c94c+29.5%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 55cpolymarketYES55c79c+44.0%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c5c−16.4%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 35cpolymarketYES35c37c+5.8%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 70cpolymarketYES70c66c−5.3%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 17c8 sessions stalepolymarketYES17c48c+179.7%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 11cpolymarketYES11c54c+390.9%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 38c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES38c26c−32.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 40c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES40c62c+55.7%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c5c−10.8%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 71c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES71c86c+20.4%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 44c4 sessions stalepolymarketYES44c16c−63.6%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 88cpolymarketYES88c13c−85.1%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 82c4.0¢ spread · 334/660 within 5¢polymarketYES82c19c−76.8%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 68c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES68c79c+17.0%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 91cpolymarketYES91c13c−86.0%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?polymarket · YES · entry 6c31 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c1c−81.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c7c−70.6%0.5%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 59 constituents by weight.
Settled · 1
graded outcomes — the basket's realized recordAll markets resolve YES · 5 of 59
a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhereThe chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.
The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.
Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.
This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.
How to read this
The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.
This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.