The Index Desk Report
LATESTFriday, September 11, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
22.3Low
111 / 139 live41 elevated47 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 22.3 (Low), up 0.9.
Rose 1.0 to 22.3 (Low), led by commodity-stress (20% leg) (22→25%) +0.6 repricing; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (18→19%) +0.2 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (27→28%) +0.1 repricing.
The board: 111 of 139 benchmarks live — 41 elevated (≥60), 47 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +14.5bps expected change (41% hold); cumulative +34.8bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Aug 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.31% (80% band 3.16–3.46%, n=26 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WEHI 43.9 (▼3.1) — Fell 3.1 to 43.9 (Moderate), led by Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (75→79%) −1.6 repricing; Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californi… (33→28%) −0.8 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Is… (53→56%) −0.3 repricing.
- WINF 58.6 (▲2.9) — Rose 2.9 to 58.6 (Moderate), led by Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? (66→73%) +1.9 repricing; Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? (11→13%) +0.6 repricing; Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end… (49→45%) −0.3 repricing.
- WCOS 25.0 (▲2.8) — Rose 2.8 to 25.0 (Low), led by Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October… (17→22%) +1.4 repricing, +0.6 reweight; Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Octob… (6→9%) +0.9 repricing; 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? (29→21%) −0.4 repricing, −0.5 reweight.
- WFLA 32.1 (▲2.2) — Rose 2.2 to 32.1 (Low), led by US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (33→38%) +1.3 repricing; Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? (82→86%) +0.6 repricing, +0.1 reweight; US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (10→11%) +0.3 repricing.
- WDCW 25.6 (▼2.0) — Fell 1.6 to 25.6 (Low), led by Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after… (47→40%) −1.8 repricing; Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californi… (33→28%) −1.3 repricing; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (33→38%) +0.5 repricing.
Projection watch
- WINC3 projected 10.6 in 14d (80% band 0–58), trending down.
- WINC4 projected 89.4 in 14d (80% band 42–100), trending up.
- WRELE projected 31.2 in 14d (80% band 0–62), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 18.5 | +0.6 | 2026-09-11 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 5.7 | -0.4 | 2026-09-11 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 43.9 | -3.1 | 2026-09-11 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 50.8 | -0.2 | 2026-09-11 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 22.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-11 | Low & cooling |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 38.1 | -1.2 | 2026-09-11 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 28.1 | +0.7 | 2026-09-11 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.6 | -0.1 | 2026-09-11 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-11 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 25.0 | +2.8 | 2026-09-11 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 68.6 | — | 2026-09-11 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 60.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-11 | Elevated & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 40.8 | — | 2026-09-11 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 32.1 | +2.2 | 2026-09-11 | Low & climbing |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 25.6 | -2.0 | 2026-09-11 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-11 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 58.6 | +2.9 | 2026-09-11 | Moderate & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 73.2 | — | 2026-09-11 | Elevated & steady |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 19.6 | 0.0 | 2026-09-11 | Very low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 27.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-11 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 43.2 | -0.2 | 2026-09-11 | Moderate & steady |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.1 | — | 2026-09-07 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 60.1 | — | 2026-09-11 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 97.0 | — | 2026-09-08 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 61.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-11 | Elevated & steady |
| WWRI | World Risk | 22.3 | +0.9 | 2026-09-11 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 19.3 | +0.8 | 2026-09-11 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 30.3 | -0.7 | 2026-09-11 | Low & steady |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 23.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 76.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 64.3 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WANGE | Angeles — Sports, inside six months | 71.0 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 53.2 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 57.8 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 31.2 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 68.8 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 63.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 32.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 67.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 53.8 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCHIC | Chicago Football, inside six months | 22.3 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI2 | Inverse Chicago Football, inside six months | 77.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 30.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 69.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 44.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 30.5 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling |
| WDALL | Dallas Football, inside six months | 26.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WDAL2 | Inverse Dallas Football, inside six months | 73.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WDEMO | Democratic — Elections, inside two years | 38.3 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 35.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 64.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling |
| WDETR | Detroit Football, inside six months | 21.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing |
| WDET2 | Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months | 78.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 51.5 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 65.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 40.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 62.8 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 27.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 72.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 31.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 68.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 39.0 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 61.0 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WHOUS | House — Elections, inside two years | 53.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 32.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 67.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 17.3 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 82.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 69.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & steady |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 61.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing |
| WJACK | Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 20.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & steady |
| WJAC2 | Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months | 79.3 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & steady |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 31.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 68.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WLASV | Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 17.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WLAS2 | Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 82.3 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WLOSA | Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 39.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing |
| WLOS2 | Inverse Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 60.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 73.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 60.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 55.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMINN | Minnesota Football, inside six months | 18.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIN2 | Inverse Minnesota Football, inside six months | 81.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNEWY | New York Football, inside six months | 13.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WNEW3 | Inverse New York Football, inside six months | 86.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 35.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 55.5 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing |
| WPARL | Parliamentary — Elections, inside two months | 44.3 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & cooling |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 24.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & steady |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 75.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & steady |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 37.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & steady |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 55.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 44.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 58.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 62.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 37.9 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WREP2 | Republican — Elections, inside two years | 57.2 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 63.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 21.8 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 78.2 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 25.4 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 74.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 63.8 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seats — Elections, inside two weeks | 53.0 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WSENA | Senate — Elections, inside six months | 55.2 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTAMP | Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 23.8 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WTAM2 | Inverse Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 76.2 | — | 2026-09-10 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 48.6 | — | 2026-09-10 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTRUM | Trump — Politics, inside six months | 26.7 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & steady |
| WYORK | York — Sports, inside six months | 35.1 | — | 2026-09-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.