The Index Desk Report
LATESTSaturday, September 5, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
22.4Low
106 / 134 live39 elevated39 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 22.4 (Low), down 0.6.
Fell 0.6 to 22.4 (Low), led by commodity-stress (20% leg) (27→24%) −0.4 repricing; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) −0.1 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (31→31%) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 106 of 134 benchmarks live — 39 elevated (≥60), 39 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +12.6bps expected change (49% hold); cumulative +27.2bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Aug 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.32% (80% band 3.2–3.49%, n=26 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WCOS 24.4 (▼2.1) — Fell 2.1 to 24.4 (Low), led by Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by Septembe… (85→82%) −0.2 repricing, −0.8 reweight; Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October… (9→10%) +0.2 repricing, +0.3 reweight; Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? (15→13%) −0.5 repricing.
- WSTW 28.6 (▲1.2) — Rose 1.2 to 28.6 (Low), led by Will the Danube River return to normal levels betwe… (12→16%) +1.4 repricing.
- WAWD 42.5 (▼1.0) — Fell 1.0 to 42.5 (Moderate), led by Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National Leag… (91→93%) −0.4 repricing; Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist i… (75→84%) −0.4 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (67→66%) +0.3 repricing.
- WDCW 29.5 (▲0.8) — Rose 1.2 to 29.5 (Low), led by Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31,… (14→26%) +1.9 repricing, +0.4 reweight; Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur… (91→91%) +0.1 repricing, −0.8 reweight; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… +0.0 repricing, −0.3 reweight.
- WINF 54.8 (▼0.7) — Fell 0.7 to 54.8 (Moderate), led by Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5… (43→40%) −0.1 repricing; Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.… (40→36%) −0.1 repricing; Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between… (36→21%) −0.2 repricing, +0.1 reweight.
Projection watch
- WINC3 projected 10.9 in 14d (80% band 0–46), trending down.
- WINC4 projected 89.1 in 14d (80% band 55–100), trending up.
- WHIKE projected 50.3 in 14d (80% band 21–79), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.2 | -0.3 | 2026-09-05 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 6.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Very low & steady |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 48.5 | +0.2 | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 51.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 24.0 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 41.5 | +0.1 | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 30.9 | -0.5 | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 40.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.4 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 24.4 | -2.1 | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 67.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 60.3 | -0.6 | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 41.1 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 31.0 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.5 | +0.8 | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 54.8 | -0.7 | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 69.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 17.4 | +0.4 | 2026-09-05 | Very low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 28.7 | +0.2 | 2026-09-05 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 42.5 | -1.0 | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 28.6 | +1.2 | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 65.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 68.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 61.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 22.4 | -0.6 | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 19.9 | -0.7 | 2026-09-05 | Very low & climbing |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 31.2 | 0.0 | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 26.7 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 73.3 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 66.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WANGE | Angeles — Sports, inside six months | 72.0 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 42.1 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARIZ | Arizona Football, inside six months | 23.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WARI2 | Inverse Arizona Football, inside six months | 76.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 53.1 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 27.9 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 72.1 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 61.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 45.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 54.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 51.3 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WCHIC | Chicago Football, inside six months | 25.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI2 | Inverse Chicago Football, inside six months | 74.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 35.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 64.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 63.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 36.1 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & steady |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 35.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 64.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling |
| WDETR | Detroit Football, inside six months | 22.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing |
| WDET2 | Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months | 77.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 40.9 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 62.2 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 54.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 58.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 29.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 70.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 38.3 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 61.7 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 44.8 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 55.2 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 26.7 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 73.3 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 19.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 80.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 67.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 56.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WLASV | Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 16.1 | — | 2026-09-04 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WLAS2 | Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 83.9 | — | 2026-09-04 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 75.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 64.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 48.0 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 32.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 67.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling |
| WMINN | Minnesota Football, inside six months | 26.5 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low |
| WMIN2 | Inverse Minnesota Football, inside six months | 73.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated |
| WNEWE | New England Football, inside six months | 34.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WNEW2 | Inverse New England Football, inside six months | 65.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WNEWY | New York Football, inside six months | 27.1 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WNEW3 | Inverse New York Football, inside six months | 72.9 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 41.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 49.0 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing |
| WPARL | Parliamentary — Elections, inside two months | 50.0 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPITT | Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 18.0 | — | 2026-09-04 | Very low & climbing, volatile |
| WPIT2 | Inverse Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 82.0 | — | 2026-09-04 | Very high & cooling, volatile |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 38.8 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & cooling |
| WRACE | Race — Elections, inside six months | 62.7 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 40.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 59.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 64.8 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 64.0 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 55.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 56.5 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 30.1 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 69.9 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 29.5 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 70.5 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 62.9 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seattle Football, inside six months | 36.8 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA3 | Inverse Seattle Football, inside six months | 63.2 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 49.5 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WTENN | Tennessee Football, inside six months | 21.4 | — | 2026-09-04 | Low & cooling |
| WTEN2 | Inverse Tennessee Football, inside six months | 78.6 | — | 2026-09-04 | Elevated & climbing |
| WYORK | York — Sports, inside six months | 40.3 | — | 2026-09-04 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.