The Index Desk Report

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Friday, September 4, 2026

The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.

Headline · WWRI

W.E.T. World Risk Index

23.0Low
102 / 134 live34 elevated40 calm

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 23.0 (Low), down 0.6.

Fell 0.6 to 23.0 (Low), led by commodity-stress (20% leg) (29→27%) −0.6 repricing; recession-odds (25% leg) −0.1 repricing.

The board: 102 of 134 benchmarks live — 34 elevated (≥60), 40 calm (<40).

What moved

  • WCOS 26.5 (▼2.8) — Fell 2.8 to 26.5 (Low), led by Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? (20→15%) −1.6 repricing; Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betwe… (79→80%) +0.0 repricing, +0.5 reweight; Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by Septembe… (86→85%) −0.1 repricing, −0.3 reweight.
  • WAWD 43.5 (▼2.7) — Fell 2.7 to 43.5 (Moderate), led by Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (64→67%) −1.2 repricing; Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National Leag… (88→91%) −1.0 repricing; Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing… (93→94%) −0.3 repricing.
  • WCHI 40.7 (▼2.5) — Fell 2.5 to 40.7 (Moderate), led by Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (64→67%) −1.5 repricing; Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National Leag… (88→91%) −0.3 repricing; Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December… (14→12%) −0.1 repricing.
  • WINF 55.5 (▼1.0) — Fell 1.0 to 55.5 (Moderate), led by Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? (65→62%) −0.9 repricing; Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? (12→13%) +0.3 repricing; Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end… (59→56%) −0.3 repricing.
  • WEHI 48.3 (▲0.9) — Rose 0.8 to 48.3 (Moderate), led by Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (71→69%) +0.8 repricing; Will the Democratic Party control the House after t… (90→89%) +0.3 repricing; Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californi… +0.0 repricing, −0.1 reweight.

Projection watch

  • WINC3 projected 11.6 in 14d (80% band 0–49), trending down.
  • WINC4 projected 88.4 in 14d (80% band 52–100), trending up.
  • WSHI projected 59.3 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.

The full board

Ticker Index Score 1d As of Regime
WGRI Geopolitical Risk 17.5 0.0 2026-09-04 Very low & steady, volatile
WFPI Fed Path 6.9 2026-09-04 Very low & steady
WEHI Election Heat 48.3 +0.9 2026-09-04 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WARI AI Race 51.1 -0.2 2026-09-04 Moderate & steady, volatile
WRCI Recession Odds 24.0 -0.2 2026-09-04 Low & steady
WCGF Crypto Greed 41.4 0.0 2026-09-04 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WCDR Climate Risk 31.4 0.0 2026-09-04 Low & steady, volatile
WCHI Culture Heat 40.7 -2.5 2026-09-04 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WPTI Political Turmoil 27.4 0.0 2026-09-04 Low & climbing, volatile
WCOS Commodity Stress 26.5 -2.8 2026-09-04 Low & climbing, volatile
WSHI Sports Heat 64.8 0.0 2026-09-04 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WEGF Equity Greed 60.9 0.0 2026-09-04 Elevated & climbing
WMID Midterm Control 41.1 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WELW Election Week 29.7 2026-08-25 Low & cooling, volatile
WFLA Flashpoint Watch 31.0 0.0 2026-09-04 Low & cooling
WDCW Washington Week 28.7 +0.4 2026-09-04 Low & cooling
WGEA Global Easing 26.7 0.0 2026-09-04 Low & steady
WINF Inflation Watch 55.5 -1.0 2026-09-04 Moderate & climbing
WEBI Earnings Beat 69.1 2026-09-04 Elevated & climbing
WBTP Bitcoin Path 17.0 +0.6 2026-09-04 Very low & climbing
WALT Altcoin Heat 28.5 +0.2 2026-09-04 Low & climbing
WAWD Awards Race 43.5 -2.7 2026-09-04 Moderate & steady
WSTW Storm Watch 27.4 0.0 2026-09-04 Low & cooling, volatile
WFAV Favorites Combo 75.2 2026-09-04 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WSOC Soccer Heat 68.7 0.0 2026-09-04 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WNFL Gridiron Futures 61.9 0.0 2026-09-04 Elevated & climbing
WWRI World Risk 23.0 -0.6 2026-09-04 Low & climbing, volatile
WMSI Macro Stress 20.6 2026-09-04 Low & climbing
WUPR US Political Risk 31.2 +0.3 2026-09-04 Low & climbing
WACHI Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months 27.8 2026-09-03 Low & steady, volatile
WACH2 Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months 72.2 2026-09-03 Elevated & steady, volatile
WALBU Album — Culture, inside six months 66.0 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WANGE Angeles — Sports, inside six months 70.1 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WANTH Anthropic — Financials, inside six months 46.3 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WARTI Artist — Culture, inside six months 50.2 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WBALT Baltimore Football, inside six months 25.6 2026-09-03 Low & cooling, volatile
WBAL2 Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months 74.4 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WBANK Bank — Economics, inside six months 69.0 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WBUFF Buffalo Football, inside six months 35.9 2026-09-03 Low & cooling, volatile
WBUF2 Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months 64.1 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WCAPT Capture — Politics, inside six months 44.1 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling
WCINC Cincinnati Football, inside six months 27.9 2026-09-03 Low & climbing
WCIN2 Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months 72.1 2026-09-03 Elevated & cooling
WCODE Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months 55.3 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WCOUN Country — Politics, inside six months 36.4 2026-09-03 Low & cooling
WDENV Denver Football, inside six months 32.9 2026-09-03 Low & climbing
WDEN2 Inverse Denver Football, inside six months 67.1 2026-09-03 Elevated & cooling
WDETR Detroit Football, inside six months 17.3 2026-09-03 Very low & climbing
WDET2 Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months 82.7 2026-09-03 Very high & cooling
WELEC Election — Politics, inside six months 37.8 2026-09-03 Low & cooling
WELE2 Election — Politics, inside two months 51.9 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WFEDE Federal — Economics, inside six months 40.3 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WGOOG Google — Tech Science, inside six months 60.2 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WHIGH Higher — Tech Science, inside six months 50.7 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WHIG2 Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months 49.3 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WHIKE Hike — Economics, inside six months 41.4 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WHIK2 Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months 58.6 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WINCR Increase — Economics, inside six months 26.3 2026-09-03 Low & climbing, volatile
WINC2 Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months 73.7 2026-09-03 Elevated & cooling, volatile
WINC3 Increase — Economics, inside two months 20.4 2026-09-03 Low & cooling, volatile
WINC4 Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months 79.6 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WINTE Interest — Economics, inside six months 70.4 2026-09-03 Elevated & steady, volatile
WINT2 Interest — Economics, inside two months 53.5 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WJACK Jacksonville Football, inside six months 21.5 2026-09-03 Low
WJAC2 Inverse Jacksonville Football, inside six months 78.5 2026-09-03 Elevated
WKANS Kansas City Football, inside six months 24.1 2026-09-03 Low & cooling
WKAN2 Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months 75.9 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing
WLASV Las Vegas Football, inside six months 14.5 2026-09-03 Very low & cooling, volatile
WLAS2 Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months 85.5 2026-09-03 Very high & climbing, volatile
WLOSA Los Angeles Football, inside six months 34.2 2026-09-03 Low & climbing
WLOS2 Inverse Los Angeles Football, inside six months 65.8 2026-09-03 Elevated & cooling
WMEET Meeting — Economics, inside six months 75.2 2026-09-03 Elevated & steady, volatile
WMEE2 Meeting — Economics, inside two months 54.0 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WMIDT Midterm — Elections, inside six months 56.3 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WMINN Minnesota Football, inside six months 20.5 2026-09-03 Low
WMIN2 Inverse Minnesota Football, inside six months 79.5 2026-09-03 Elevated
WNEWE New England Football, inside six months 27.9 2026-09-03 Low & cooling, volatile
WNEW2 Inverse New England Football, inside six months 72.1 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WNEWY New York Football, inside six months 15.1 2026-09-03 Very low & cooling, volatile
WNEW3 Inverse New York Football, inside six months 84.9 2026-09-03 Very high & climbing, volatile
WOPEN Openai — Financials, inside six months 41.3 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling
WOPE2 Openai — Financials, inside two years 49.3 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing
WPARL Parliamentary — Elections, inside two months 50.5 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WPHIL Philadelphia Football, inside six months 24.5 2026-09-03 Low & steady
WPHI2 Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months 75.5 2026-09-03 Elevated & steady
WPRES President — Politics, inside six months 37.8 2026-09-03 Low & cooling
WRACE Race — Elections, inside six months 80.8 2026-09-03 Very high & climbing, volatile
WRATE Rate — Economics, inside six months 39.7 2026-09-03 Low & steady, volatile
WRAT2 Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months 60.3 2026-09-03 Elevated & steady, volatile
WRAT3 Rate — Economics, inside two months 56.2 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WRAT4 Rates — Economics, inside two months 52.2 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WSANF San Francisco Football, inside six months 19.0 2026-09-03 Very low & cooling, volatile
WSAN2 Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months 81.0 2026-09-03 Very high & climbing, volatile
WSCOR Score — Tech Science, inside six months 41.9 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WSCO2 Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months 58.1 2026-09-03 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WSEAT Seats — Elections, inside two months 71.0 2026-09-03 Elevated & climbing, volatile
WSEA2 Seattle Football, inside six months 29.3 2026-09-03 Low & steady
WSEA3 Inverse Seattle Football, inside six months 70.7 2026-09-03 Elevated & steady
WTAMP Tampa Bay Football, inside six months 27.9 2026-09-03 Low
WTAM2 Inverse Tampa Bay Football, inside six months 72.1 2026-09-03 Elevated
WTAYL Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months 50.2 2026-09-03 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WYORK York — Sports, inside six months 38.9 2026-09-03 Low & cooling, volatile

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.