The Index Desk Report
LATESTSunday, September 6, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
22.3Low
94 / 134 live31 elevated35 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 22.3 (Low), down 0.1.
Fell 0.6 to 22.3 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) +0.1 repricing; recession-odds (25% leg) +0.1 repricing; commodity-stress (20% leg) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 94 of 134 benchmarks live — 31 elevated (≥60), 35 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +12.7bps expected change (48% hold); cumulative +27.6bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Aug 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.33% (80% band 3.21–3.47%, n=26 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WCHI 43.3 (▲2.6) — Rose 2.6 to 43.3 (Moderate), led by Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (66→65%) +0.9 repricing; Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December… (13→20%) +0.4 repricing; Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? (29→38%) +0.4 repricing.
- WDCW 28.2 (▼1.3) — Fell 1.3 to 28.2 (Low), led by Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31,… (26→14%) −2.0 repricing, +0.2 reweight; Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after… (49→50%) +0.3 repricing; Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur… (91→92%) +0.1 repricing, −0.3 reweight.
- WFPI 8.1 (▲1.2) — Rose 1.2 to 8.1 (Very low), led by Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? (4→5%) +0.5 repricing; Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027? — C… (9→10%) +0.4 repricing.
- WCDR 30.0 (▼0.9) — Fell 0.9 to 30.0 (Low), led by Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (16→11%) −1.4 repricing; Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (45→50%) +0.8 repricing; Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? (8→3%) −0.1 repricing.
- WAWD 43.4 (▲0.9) — Rose 0.9 to 43.4 (Moderate), led by Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Ac… (27→50%) +0.8 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (66→65%) +0.7 repricing; Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National Leag… (93→94%) −0.5 repricing.
Projection watch
- WINC3 projected 25.4 in 14d (80% band 0–69), trending down.
- WINC4 projected 74.6 in 14d (80% band 31–100), trending up.
- WTAYL projected 63.1 in 14d (80% band 12–100), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.4 | +0.2 | 2026-09-06 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 8.1 | +1.2 | 2026-09-06 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 48.8 | +0.3 | 2026-09-06 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 51.5 | +0.4 | 2026-09-06 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 24.3 | +0.3 | 2026-09-06 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 42.0 | +0.5 | 2026-09-06 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 30.0 | -0.9 | 2026-09-06 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.3 | +2.6 | 2026-09-06 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.2 | -0.2 | 2026-09-06 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 24.0 | -0.4 | 2026-09-06 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 67.7 | 0.0 | 2026-09-06 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 60.3 | 0.0 | 2026-09-06 | Elevated & climbing |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 41.1 | 0.0 | 2026-09-06 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 31.0 | 0.0 | 2026-09-06 | Low & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 28.2 | -1.3 | 2026-09-06 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.9 | +0.2 | 2026-09-06 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 54.4 | -0.4 | 2026-09-06 | Moderate & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 69.2 | +0.1 | 2026-09-06 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 17.7 | +0.3 | 2026-09-06 | Very low & climbing |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 28.8 | +0.1 | 2026-09-06 | Low & climbing |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 43.4 | +0.9 | 2026-09-06 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 29.5 | +0.9 | 2026-09-06 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 65.4 | 0.0 | 2026-09-06 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 95.6 | — | 2026-09-06 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 61.9 | 0.0 | 2026-09-06 | Elevated & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 22.3 | -0.1 | 2026-09-06 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 20.1 | +0.2 | 2026-09-06 | Low & climbing |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 31.2 | 0.0 | 2026-09-06 | Low & climbing |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 25.8 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 74.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 61.9 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WANGE | Angeles — Sports, inside six months | 66.9 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 45.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 45.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 26.9 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 73.1 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 56.1 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 39.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 60.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 44.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 29.8 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 70.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 51.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 36.1 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & steady |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 45.5 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 51.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 49.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 57.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 30.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 69.3 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 39.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 60.3 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 41.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 58.3 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 30.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 70.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 33.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 66.8 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 68.9 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 56.8 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 30.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & steady |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 69.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & steady |
| WLOSA | Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 32.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling |
| WLOS2 | Inverse Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 67.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 73.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 64.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 48.9 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMINN | Minnesota Football, inside six months | 18.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMIN2 | Inverse Minnesota Football, inside six months | 81.3 | — | 2026-09-05 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WNEWE | New England Football, inside six months | 30.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WNEW2 | Inverse New England Football, inside six months | 69.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 41.5 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 45.8 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & steady |
| WPARL | Parliamentary — Elections, inside two months | 52.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 24.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & steady |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 76.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & steady |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 36.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 58.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 41.8 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 61.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 66.1 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 50.3 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 53.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 23.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 77.0 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 28.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 71.8 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 64.2 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seattle Football, inside six months | 27.7 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA3 | Inverse Seattle Football, inside six months | 72.3 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WTAMP | Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 23.4 | — | 2026-09-05 | Low |
| WTAM2 | Inverse Tampa Bay Football, inside six months | 76.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Elevated |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 57.6 | — | 2026-09-05 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.