Wednesday, August 12, 2026

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.9 (Very low), up 0.6.

Rose 0.6 to 19.9 (Very low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) +0.2 repricing.

The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 2 elevated (≥60), 19 calm (<40).

WET Implied · real-unit readings

• Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +8.6bps expected change (62% hold); cumulative +18.6bps by Dec 2026.
• Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.3% (80% band 3.15–3.43%, n=21 strikes).

Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.

What moved

• WSHI 30.7 (▼21.7) — Fell 21.7 to 30.7 (Low), led by Will Amanda Anisimova win the Tararudee vs Anisimov… +16.7; Will Jackson Koivun win the 2026 Wyndham Championsh… (left the basket) −1.6; Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? +0.3.
• WSTW 27.4 (▼11.0) — Fell 11.0 to 27.4 (Low), led by Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5… (42→1%) −13.5.
• WEHI 47.3 (▼3.0) — Fell 3.0 to 47.3 (Moderate), led by Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (66→68%) −0.7 repricing, −0.7 reweight; Will the Democratic Party control the House after t… (87→88%) −0.3 repricing, −0.2 reweight; Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californi… +0.0 repricing, −0.4 reweight.
• WCHI 40.8 (▼2.7) — Fell 2.7 to 40.8 (Moderate), led by Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (58→59%) −0.7 repricing, −0.1 reweight; Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? (62→70%) −0.7 repricing; Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand… (56→67%) −0.8 repricing, +0.1 reweight.
• WFLA 39.7 (▼2.5) — Fell 2.5 to 39.7 (Low), led by US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (6→1%) −1.1 repricing; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (14→11%) −0.8 repricing; US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (23→25%) +0.5 repricing, +0.1 reweight.

Projection watch

• WSTW projected 5.9 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
• WARI projected 30.8 in 14d (80% band 0–72), trending down.
• WSHI projected 20.8 in 14d (80% band 0–99), trending down.

The full board

Ticker	Index	Score	1d	Regime
WGRI	Geopolitical Risk	17.6	+0.7	Very low & steady, volatile
WFPI	Fed Path	11.4	+0.6	Very low & climbing
WEHI	Election Heat	47.3	-3.0	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WARI	AI Race	43.7	+0.7	Moderate & climbing, volatile
WRCI	Recession Odds	22.9	-0.8	Low & steady
WCGF	Crypto Greed	20.3	-1.5	Low & steady, volatile
WCDR	Climate Risk	32.5	+0.5	Low & climbing, volatile
WCHI	Culture Heat	40.8	-2.7	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WPTI	Political Turmoil	25.3	-1.0	Low & cooling, volatile
WCOS	Commodity Stress	11.1	+1.3	Very low & cooling, volatile
WSHI	Sports Heat	30.7	-21.7	Low & cooling, volatile
WEGF	Equity Greed	51.7	+0.9	Moderate & climbing
WMID	Midterm Control	56.8	+2.0	Moderate & climbing
WELW	Election Week	33.8	-2.0	Low & cooling, volatile
WFLA	Flashpoint Watch	39.7	-2.5	Low & cooling
WDCW	Washington Week	35.0	+1.8	Low & climbing
WGEA	Global Easing	27.9	+0.6	Low & steady
WINF	Inflation Watch	47.3	+1.2	Moderate & cooling
WEBI	Earnings Beat	72.2	+0.5	Elevated & climbing
WBTP	Bitcoin Path	8.5	-0.6	Very low & steady
WALT	Altcoin Heat	29.5	-1.1	Low & steady
WAWD	Awards Race	51.0	-1.2	Moderate & cooling
WSTW	Storm Watch	27.4	-11.0	Low & cooling, volatile
WFAV	Favorites Combo	64.8	—	Elevated
WSOC	Soccer Heat	33.5	-0.8	Low & cooling, volatile
WNFL	Gridiron Futures	50.5	+0.9	Moderate & cooling
WWRI	World Risk	19.9	+0.6	Very low & steady, volatile
WMSI	Macro Stress	15.9	-1.1	Very low & steady
WUPR	US Political Risk	30.0	-1.3	Low & cooling

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.