Tuesday, August 11, 2026

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.7 (Very low), down 0.5.

Fell 0.5 to 19.7 (Very low), led by commodity-stress (20% leg) (10→11%) +0.3 repricing; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) +0.1 repricing; climate-risk (15% leg) (32→33%) +0.1 repricing.

The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 2 elevated (≥60), 18 calm (<40).

WET Implied · real-unit readings

• Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +10.6bps expected change (56% hold); cumulative +20.2bps by Dec 2026.
• Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.32% (80% band 3.18–3.47%, n=21 strikes).

Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.

What moved

• WSHI 30.7 (▼21.7) — Fell 21.7 to 30.7 (Low), led by Will Amanda Anisimova win the Tararudee vs Anisimov… +16.7; Will Jackson Koivun win the 2026 Wyndham Championsh… (left the basket) −1.6; Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? +0.3.
• WSTW 27.4 (▼11.0) — Fell 11.0 to 27.4 (Low), led by Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5… (42→1%) −13.5.
• WEBI 71.7 (▲6.5) — Rose 6.5 to 71.7 (Elevated), led by Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings? (left the basket) −18.9; Will Virgin Galactic Hldgs (SPCE) beat quarterly ea… (84→93%) +3.0 repricing, +11.2 reweight; Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? +0.0 repricing, +12.4 reweight.
• WELW 33.8 (▼2.0) — Fell 2.0 to 33.8 (Low), led by Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor R… (36→27%) −2.2 repricing, +0.7 reweight; Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-0… (69→83%) −0.9 repricing; Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (38→40%) +0.8 repricing.
• WEHI 50.3 (▲1.5) — Rose 1.5 to 50.3 (Moderate), led by Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (68→66%) +0.7 repricing; Will the Democratic Party control the House after t… (89→87%) +0.6 repricing; Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californi… +0.0 repricing, −0.1 reweight.

Projection watch

• WSTW projected 5.9 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
• WARI projected 29.2 in 14d (80% band 0–72), trending down.
• WPTI projected 14.4 in 14d (80% band 0–73), trending down.

The full board

Ticker	Index	Score	1d	Regime
WGRI	Geopolitical Risk	17.2	-0.9	Very low & steady, volatile
WFPI	Fed Path	11.2	+0.9	Very low & climbing
WEHI	Election Heat	50.3	+1.5	Moderate & steady, volatile
WARI	AI Race	43.5	+0.7	Moderate & climbing, volatile
WRCI	Recession Odds	23.0	-0.8	Low & steady
WCGF	Crypto Greed	21.9	+0.8	Low & steady, volatile
WCDR	Climate Risk	32.5	+0.5	Low & climbing, volatile
WCHI	Culture Heat	43.5	+0.5	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WPTI	Political Turmoil	26.4	-0.9	Low & cooling, volatile
WCOS	Commodity Stress	11.1	+1.3	Very low & cooling, volatile
WSHI	Sports Heat	30.7	-21.7	Low & cooling, volatile
WEGF	Equity Greed	51.7	+0.9	Moderate & climbing
WMID	Midterm Control	54.8	+0.8	Moderate & steady
WELW	Election Week	33.8	-2.0	Low & climbing, volatile
WFLA	Flashpoint Watch	42.2	-0.8	Moderate & cooling
WDCW	Washington Week	33.2	-1.1	Low & climbing
WGEA	Global Easing	28.2	+0.6	Low & steady
WINF	Inflation Watch	47.0	+1.2	Moderate & cooling
WEBI	Earnings Beat	71.7	+6.5	Elevated & cooling, volatile
WBTP	Bitcoin Path	9.1	+0.7	Very low & steady
WALT	Altcoin Heat	30.9	-0.5	Low & steady
WAWD	Awards Race	51.8	-0.9	Moderate & cooling
WSTW	Storm Watch	27.4	-11.0	Low & cooling, volatile
WFAV	Favorites Combo	64.8	—	Elevated
WSOC	Soccer Heat	33.5	-0.8	Low & cooling, volatile
WNFL	Gridiron Futures	49.6	-0.5	Moderate & cooling
WWRI	World Risk	19.7	-0.5	Very low & steady, volatile
WMSI	Macro Stress	15.9	-1.1	Very low & steady
WUPR	US Political Risk	31.3	+0.6	Low & steady

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.