The Index Desk Report
Monday, August 10, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
19.3Very low
29 / 29 live2 elevated18 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.3 (Very low), down 0.5.
Fell 0.5 to 19.3 (Very low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (17→17%) −0.2; commodity-stress (20% leg) (11→10%) −0.1.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 2 elevated (≥60), 18 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +8bps expected change (64% hold); cumulative +16.5bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.32% (80% band 3.2–3.46%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WSHI 30.7 (▼21.7) — Fell 21.7 to 30.7 (Low), led by Will Amanda Anisimova win the Tararudee vs Anisimov… +16.7; Will Jackson Koivun win the 2026 Wyndham Championsh… (left the basket) −1.6; Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? +0.3.
- WSTW 27.4 (▼11.0) — Fell 11.0 to 27.4 (Low), led by Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5… (42→1%) −13.5.
- WFLA 43.0 (▼6.7) — Fell 6.7 to 43.0 (Moderate), led by US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (31→25%) −1.7; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (13→8%) −1.1; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (15→13%) −0.5.
- WEBI 71.7 (▲6.5) — Rose 6.5 to 71.7 (Elevated), led by Will Rumble (RUM) beat quarterly earnings? (16→53%) +7.3; Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings? (92→95%) +0.5; Will Marex Group (MRX) beat quarterly earnings? (92→90%) −0.3.
- WELW 35.8 (▼3.0) — Fell 3.0 to 35.8 (Low), led by Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (45→38%) −2.7; Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor R… (45→36%) −1.4; Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-0… (77→69%) +0.7.
Projection watch
- WSTW projected 5.9 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WARI projected 28.6 in 14d (80% band 0–73), trending down.
- WPTI projected 12.9 in 14d (80% band 0–74), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 16.9 | -0.9 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 10.4 | +0.9 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 48.9 | +0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 43.5 | +0.7 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.0 | -0.8 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 22.1 | +0.8 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 32.0 | +1.0 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.3 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 26.2 | -0.9 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 9.8 | -0.7 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 30.7 | -21.7 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 50.4 | +0.5 | Moderate & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 54.4 | +0.5 | Moderate & steady |
| WELW | Election Week | 35.8 | -3.0 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 43.0 | -6.7 | Moderate & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 34.3 | +1.3 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.4 | +0.5 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 45.7 | +1.1 | Moderate & cooling |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 71.7 | +6.5 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.3 | +0.7 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 31.0 | -0.5 | Low & climbing |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 52.2 | -0.9 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.4 | -11.0 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 64.8 | — | Elevated |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 33.5 | -0.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 50.1 | -0.6 | Moderate & cooling |
| WWRI | World Risk | 19.3 | -0.5 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.2 | -1.1 | Very low & steady |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 30.7 | -0.6 | Low & cooling |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.