The Index Desk Report
Sunday, August 9, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
19.6Very low
29 / 29 live2 elevated18 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.6 (Very low), flat.
Published at 19.6 (Very low), led by commodity-stress (20% leg) (14→11%) −0.6; climate-risk (15% leg) (31→32%) +0.2.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 2 elevated (≥60), 18 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +7.9bps expected change (65% hold); cumulative +16.5bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.32% (80% band 3.18–3.46%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WSHI 30.7 (▼21.7) — Fell 21.7 to 30.7 (Low), led by Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? (40→1%) −25.6; Will Jackson Koivun win the 2026 Wyndham Championsh… (2→2%) +0.6.
- WSTW 27.4 (▼11.0) — Fell 11.0 to 27.4 (Low), led by Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5… (42→1%) −13.5.
- WDCW 33.4 (▲4.0) — Rose 4.0 to 33.4 (Low), led by Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur… (29→36%) +0.8; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31,… (14→14%) −0.2; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (91→84%) −0.2.
- WCOS 10.5 (▼2.8) — Fell 2.8 to 10.5 (Very low), led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Augus… (13→7%) −1.8; Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 3… (5→4%) −0.3; US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? (62→36%) −0.3.
- WNFL 50.7 (▼1.7) — Fell 1.7 to 50.7 (Moderate), led by Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? (66→68%) −0.9; Los Angeles R — 2027 Pro Football Champion (17→15%) −0.2; Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Champion… (17→16%) −0.2.
Projection watch
- WSTW projected 5.9 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WARI projected 26.4 in 14d (80% band 0–72), trending down.
- WPTI projected 11.6 in 14d (80% band 0–75), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.4 | -1.5 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 11.0 | +0.9 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 49.0 | +0.8 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 42.8 | +0.8 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.0 | -0.8 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.7 | +0.8 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 32.0 | +1.0 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.0 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 26.3 | -0.9 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 10.5 | -2.8 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 30.7 | -21.7 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 50.8 | +0.5 | Moderate & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 54.0 | +0.5 | Moderate & steady |
| WELW | Election Week | 38.8 | -0.7 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 49.4 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 33.4 | +4.0 | Low & climbing |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.8 | +0.5 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 45.8 | +1.1 | Moderate & cooling |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 65.2 | -0.6 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.0 | +0.7 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 30.6 | -0.5 | Low & steady |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 52.2 | -0.9 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.4 | -11.0 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 64.8 | — | Elevated |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 33.5 | -0.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 50.7 | -1.7 | Moderate & cooling |
| WWRI | World Risk | 19.6 | — | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.6 | -1.1 | Very low & steady |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 30.9 | -0.9 | Low & steady |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.