The Index Desk Report
Saturday, August 8, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
20.1Low
29 / 29 live2 elevated17 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 20.1 (Low), flat.
Published at 20.1 (Low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (29→31%) +0.3; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) −0.2.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 2 elevated (≥60), 17 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +8.4bps expected change (63% hold); cumulative +16.5bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.33% (80% band 3.18–3.47%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WDCW 33.0 (▲4.0) — Rose 4.0 to 33.0 (Low), led by Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after… (49→63%) +3.5; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (92→91%) +1.0; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31,… (15→14%) −0.2.
- WINF 44.7 (▼3.7) — Fell 3.7 to 44.7 (Moderate), led by Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? (58→48%) −3.0; Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in… (65→57%) −0.5; Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? (45→47%) +0.3.
- WSTW 38.4 (▲1.6) — Rose 1.6 to 38.4 (Low), led by Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5… (36→42%) +2.0; Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (98→99%) +0.4; Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Categor… (2→1%) −0.4.
- WGRI 17.4 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 17.4 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (18→17%) −0.2; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (71→69%) −0.1; US strike on Cuba by December 31? (24→22%) −0.1.
- WCDR 31.0 (▲1.5) — Rose 1.5 to 31.0 (Low), led by Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (40→48%) +1.2; Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (98→99%) +1.1; Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… −0.1.
Projection watch
- WSTW projected 18.4 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WARI projected 25.0 in 14d (80% band 0–72), trending down.
- WPTI projected 11.8 in 14d (80% band 0–78), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.4 | -1.5 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 10.8 | +0.9 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 48.8 | +0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 42.8 | +0.8 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.0 | -0.8 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.7 | +0.8 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 31.0 | +1.5 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.8 | +0.5 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.5 | -1.1 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.6 | +1.2 | Very low & climbing, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 52.4 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 50.3 | +0.6 | Moderate & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 53.8 | -0.9 | Moderate & steady |
| WELW | Election Week | 38.8 | -0.7 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 49.7 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 33.0 | +4.0 | Low & steady |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.9 | +0.5 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 44.7 | -3.7 | Moderate & cooling |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 65.8 | — | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.3 | +0.7 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 30.8 | +1.4 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 52.7 | -1.2 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 38.4 | +1.6 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 64.8 | — | Elevated |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 33.5 | -0.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 52.4 | +1.4 | Moderate & cooling |
| WWRI | World Risk | 20.1 | — | Low & steady, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 16.7 | +0.6 | Very low & climbing |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 31.4 | -0.9 | Low & steady |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.