Saturday, August 8, 2026

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 20.1 (Low), flat.

Published at 20.1 (Low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (29→31%) +0.3; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) −0.2.

The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 2 elevated (≥60), 17 calm (<40).

WET Implied · real-unit readings

• Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +8.4bps expected change (63% hold); cumulative +16.5bps by Dec 2026.
• Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.33% (80% band 3.18–3.47%, n=21 strikes).

Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.

What moved

• WDCW 33.0 (▲4.0) — Rose 4.0 to 33.0 (Low), led by Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after… (49→63%) +3.5; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (92→91%) +1.0; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31,… (15→14%) −0.2.
• WINF 44.7 (▼3.7) — Fell 3.7 to 44.7 (Moderate), led by Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? (58→48%) −3.0; Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in… (65→57%) −0.5; Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? (45→47%) +0.3.
• WSTW 38.4 (▲1.6) — Rose 1.6 to 38.4 (Low), led by Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5… (36→42%) +2.0; Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (98→99%) +0.4; Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Categor… (2→1%) −0.4.
• WGRI 17.4 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 17.4 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (18→17%) −0.2; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (71→69%) −0.1; US strike on Cuba by December 31? (24→22%) −0.1.
• WCDR 31.0 (▲1.5) — Rose 1.5 to 31.0 (Low), led by Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (40→48%) +1.2; Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (98→99%) +1.1; Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… −0.1.

Projection watch

• WSTW projected 18.4 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
• WARI projected 25.0 in 14d (80% band 0–72), trending down.
• WPTI projected 11.8 in 14d (80% band 0–78), trending down.

The full board

Ticker	Index	Score	1d	Regime
WGRI	Geopolitical Risk	17.4	-1.5	Very low & cooling, volatile
WFPI	Fed Path	10.8	+0.9	Very low & climbing
WEHI	Election Heat	48.8	+0.8	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WARI	AI Race	42.8	+0.8	Moderate & climbing, volatile
WRCI	Recession Odds	23.0	-0.8	Low & steady
WCGF	Crypto Greed	21.7	+0.8	Low & steady, volatile
WCDR	Climate Risk	31.0	+1.5	Low & climbing, volatile
WCHI	Culture Heat	43.8	+0.5	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WPTI	Political Turmoil	27.5	-1.1	Low & steady, volatile
WCOS	Commodity Stress	13.6	+1.2	Very low & climbing, volatile
WSHI	Sports Heat	52.4	-0.8	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WEGF	Equity Greed	50.3	+0.6	Moderate & steady
WMID	Midterm Control	53.8	-0.9	Moderate & steady
WELW	Election Week	38.8	-0.7	Low & climbing, volatile
WFLA	Flashpoint Watch	49.7	-0.8	Moderate & cooling
WDCW	Washington Week	33.0	+4.0	Low & steady
WGEA	Global Easing	27.9	+0.5	Low & steady
WINF	Inflation Watch	44.7	-3.7	Moderate & cooling
WEBI	Earnings Beat	65.8	—	Elevated & cooling
WBTP	Bitcoin Path	9.3	+0.7	Very low & steady
WALT	Altcoin Heat	30.8	+1.4	Low & cooling
WAWD	Awards Race	52.7	-1.2	Moderate & cooling
WSTW	Storm Watch	38.4	+1.6	Low & cooling, volatile
WFAV	Favorites Combo	64.8	—	Elevated
WSOC	Soccer Heat	33.5	-0.8	Low & cooling, volatile
WNFL	Gridiron Futures	52.4	+1.4	Moderate & cooling
WWRI	World Risk	20.1	—	Low & steady, volatile
WMSI	Macro Stress	16.7	+0.6	Very low & climbing
WUPR	US Political Risk	31.4	-0.9	Low & steady

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.