The Index Desk Report
Friday, August 7, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
20.0Low
29 / 29 live2 elevated17 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 20.0 (Low), flat.
Published at 20.0 (Low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) +0.1; climate-risk (15% leg) −0.1.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 2 elevated (≥60), 17 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +12.1bps expected change (49% hold); cumulative +22.1bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.33% (80% band 3.2–3.48%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WCDR 29.1 (▲1.9) — Rose 1.9 to 29.1 (Low), led by Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (96→98%) +2.1; Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (24→19%) −1.7; Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (43→40%) −0.7.
- WNFL 51.0 (▼1.9) — Fell 1.9 to 51.0 (Moderate), led by Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? (62→67%) −1.9; Will the Bills win the season series against the Do… (79→67%) +0.3; Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs ne… (18→13%) −0.2.
- WELW 39.5 (▼1.6) — Fell 1.6 to 39.5 (Low), led by Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor R… (85→74%) +2.0; Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for S… (85→71%) +1.7; Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (54→47%) +0.6.
- WGRI 17.8 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 17.8 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (16→18%) +0.5; Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end… (85→75%) −0.3; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (69→71%) +0.1.
- WALT 31.1 (▲1.4) — Rose 1.4 to 31.1 (Low), led by Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? (22→27%) +1.3; Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? (19→24%) +0.2; Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? (7→8%) +0.1.
Projection watch
- WARI projected 23.1 in 14d (80% band 0–73), trending down.
- WPTI projected 10.6 in 14d (80% band 0–80), trending down.
- WEBI projected 50.7 in 14d (80% band 31–71), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.8 | -1.5 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 9.9 | +0.8 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 48.0 | -1.0 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 42.5 | +0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.0 | -0.8 | Low & climbing |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.8 | +0.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 29.1 | +1.9 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 43.3 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.4 | -1.1 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.6 | +1.2 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 53.2 | -1.3 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 50.3 | +0.6 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 53.5 | -0.9 | Moderate & steady |
| WELW | Election Week | 39.5 | -1.6 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 49.7 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.1 | -0.5 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.6 | +0.5 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 48.6 | -0.7 | Moderate & steady |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 65.8 | — | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.2 | +0.7 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 31.1 | +1.4 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 53.1 | -1.2 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 36.8 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 64.8 | — | Elevated |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 34.3 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 51.0 | -1.9 | Moderate & cooling |
| WWRI | World Risk | 20.0 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 16.4 | — | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 31.2 | -0.9 | Low & cooling |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.