Thursday, August 6, 2026

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.9 (Very low), flat.

Published at 19.9 (Very low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (28→30%) +0.3; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) −0.2; commodity-stress (20% leg) +0.1.

The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 16 calm (<40).

WET Implied · real-unit readings

• Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +11.5bps expected change (51% hold); cumulative +21.1bps by Dec 2026.
• Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.32% (80% band 3.19–3.46%, n=21 strikes).

Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.

What moved

• WFLA 50.5 (▼2.1) — Fell 2.1 to 50.5 (Moderate), led by US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (37→35%) −0.8; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (18→14%) −0.8; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (22→20%) −0.6.
• WCDR 29.5 (▲1.9) — Rose 1.9 to 29.5 (Low), led by Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (90→96%) +2.5; Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (44→43%) −0.4; Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (11→14%) +0.3.
• WCHI 44.1 (▼1.8) — Fell 1.8 to 44.1 (Moderate), led by Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? (56→66%) −0.9; Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (54→55%) −0.6; Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December… (34→18%) −0.4.
• WELW 39.5 (▼1.6) — Fell 1.6 to 39.5 (Low), led by Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (60→54%) +2.5; Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor R… (78→85%) −1.6; Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor… (84→90%) −0.6.
• WGRI 17.6 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 17.6 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (17→16%) −0.3; Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? −0.1; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (68→69%) +0.1.

Projection watch

• WARI projected 21.7 in 14d (80% band 0–74), trending down.
• WPTI projected 9.6 in 14d (80% band 0–83), trending down.
• WCGF projected 5.4 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.

The full board

Ticker	Index	Score	1d	Regime
WGRI	Geopolitical Risk	17.6	-1.5	Very low & cooling, volatile
WFPI	Fed Path	9.4	—	Very low & climbing
WEHI	Election Heat	49.0	-0.9	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WARI	AI Race	42.8	+0.8	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WRCI	Recession Odds	23.0	-0.8	Low & climbing
WCGF	Crypto Greed	21.0	+0.5	Low & cooling, volatile
WCDR	Climate Risk	29.5	+1.9	Low & cooling, volatile
WCHI	Culture Heat	44.1	-1.8	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WPTI	Political Turmoil	27.2	-1.1	Low & cooling, volatile
WCOS	Commodity Stress	13.6	+1.2	Very low & cooling, volatile
WSHI	Sports Heat	54.5	—	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WEGF	Equity Greed	50.0	-0.8	Moderate & cooling
WMID	Midterm Control	54.0	+0.8	Moderate & steady
WELW	Election Week	39.5	-1.6	Low & climbing, volatile
WFLA	Flashpoint Watch	50.5	-2.1	Moderate & cooling
WDCW	Washington Week	29.0	-0.5	Low & cooling
WGEA	Global Easing	27.1	-0.5	Low & steady
WINF	Inflation Watch	48.4	-0.7	Moderate & steady
WEBI	Earnings Beat	69.1	—	Elevated & cooling
WBTP	Bitcoin Path	9.4	+0.7	Very low & steady
WALT	Altcoin Heat	29.5	-1.1	Low & cooling
WAWD	Awards Race	53.9	-1.5	Moderate & cooling
WSTW	Storm Watch	19.9	—	Very low & cooling, volatile
WFAV	Favorites Combo	64.8	—	Elevated
WSOC	Soccer Heat	62.5	—	Elevated & climbing
WNFL	Gridiron Futures	53.1	—	Moderate & cooling
WWRI	World Risk	19.9	—	Very low & cooling, volatile
WMSI	Macro Stress	16.3	—	Very low & cooling
WUPR	US Political Risk	31.3	-0.9	Low & cooling, volatile

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.