The Index Desk Report
Thursday, August 6, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
19.9Very low
29 / 29 live3 elevated16 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.9 (Very low), flat.
Published at 19.9 (Very low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (28→30%) +0.3; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) −0.2; commodity-stress (20% leg) +0.1.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 16 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +11.5bps expected change (51% hold); cumulative +21.1bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.32% (80% band 3.19–3.46%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WFLA 50.5 (▼2.1) — Fell 2.1 to 50.5 (Moderate), led by US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (37→35%) −0.8; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (18→14%) −0.8; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (22→20%) −0.6.
- WCDR 29.5 (▲1.9) — Rose 1.9 to 29.5 (Low), led by Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (90→96%) +2.5; Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (44→43%) −0.4; Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (11→14%) +0.3.
- WCHI 44.1 (▼1.8) — Fell 1.8 to 44.1 (Moderate), led by Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? (56→66%) −0.9; Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (54→55%) −0.6; Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December… (34→18%) −0.4.
- WELW 39.5 (▼1.6) — Fell 1.6 to 39.5 (Low), led by Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (60→54%) +2.5; Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor R… (78→85%) −1.6; Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor… (84→90%) −0.6.
- WGRI 17.6 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 17.6 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (17→16%) −0.3; Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? −0.1; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (68→69%) +0.1.
Projection watch
- WARI projected 21.7 in 14d (80% band 0–74), trending down.
- WPTI projected 9.6 in 14d (80% band 0–83), trending down.
- WCGF projected 5.4 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.6 | -1.5 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 9.4 | — | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 49.0 | -0.9 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 42.8 | +0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.0 | -0.8 | Low & climbing |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.0 | +0.5 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 29.5 | +1.9 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 44.1 | -1.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.2 | -1.1 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.6 | +1.2 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 54.5 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 50.0 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 54.0 | +0.8 | Moderate & steady |
| WELW | Election Week | 39.5 | -1.6 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 50.5 | -2.1 | Moderate & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.0 | -0.5 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.1 | -0.5 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 48.4 | -0.7 | Moderate & steady |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 69.1 | — | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.4 | +0.7 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 29.5 | -1.1 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 53.9 | -1.5 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 19.9 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 64.8 | — | Elevated |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 62.5 | — | Elevated & climbing |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 53.1 | — | Moderate & cooling |
| WWRI | World Risk | 19.9 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 16.3 | — | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 31.3 | -0.9 | Low & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.