Wednesday, August 5, 2026

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.8 (Very low), flat.

Published at 19.8 (Very low).

The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 14 calm (<40).

WET Implied · real-unit readings

• Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +11.8bps expected change (50% hold); cumulative +22bps by Dec 2026.
• Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.34% (80% band 3.2–3.47%, n=21 strikes).

Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.

What moved

• WFLA 52.6 (▼6.5) — Fell 6.5 to 52.6 (Moderate), led by Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations… (left the basket) −12.6; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (36→18%) −2.5; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (34→22%) −1.7.
• WDCW 29.4 (▼3.1) — Fell 3.1 to 29.4 (Low), led by Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps afte… (left the basket) −13.6; Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after… (added to the basket) +12.9; Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californi… (added to the basket) +8.0.
• WCDR 27.6 (▲2.4) — Rose 2.4 to 27.6 (Low), led by Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (72→90%) +3.6; Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (16→11%) −0.7; Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (26→25%) −0.5.
• WGRI 18.0 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 18.0 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (21→17%) −1.0; US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (added to the basket) +0.2; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (64→68%) +0.1.
• WAWD 54.6 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 54.6 (Moderate), led by Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? (left the basket) −4.3; Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? (left the basket) −1.0; Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Ac… (added to the basket) +0.9.

Projection watch

• WARI projected 20.5 in 14d (80% band 0–75), trending down.
• WPTI projected 9.7 in 14d (80% band 0–87), trending down.
• WCGF projected 3.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.

The full board

Ticker	Index	Score	1d	Regime
WGRI	Geopolitical Risk	18.0	-1.5	Very low & cooling, volatile
WFPI	Fed Path	9.1	—	Very low & climbing
WEHI	Election Heat	50.0	—	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WARI	AI Race	42.0	+0.8	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WRCI	Recession Odds	23.0	-0.8	Low & climbing
WCGF	Crypto Greed	21.0	+0.5	Low & cooling, volatile
WCDR	Climate Risk	27.6	+2.4	Low & cooling, volatile
WCHI	Culture Heat	46.1	—	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WPTI	Political Turmoil	28.2	+0.8	Low & cooling, volatile
WCOS	Commodity Stress	13.3	+1.2	Very low & cooling, volatile
WSHI	Sports Heat	54.5	—	Moderate & climbing, volatile
WEGF	Equity Greed	49.7	-0.8	Moderate & cooling
WMID	Midterm Control	54.4	+0.8	Moderate & steady
WELW	Election Week	41.1	—	Moderate & climbing, volatile
WFLA	Flashpoint Watch	52.6	-6.5	Moderate & cooling
WDCW	Washington Week	29.4	-3.1	Low & cooling
WGEA	Global Easing	27.4	-0.5	Low & steady
WINF	Inflation Watch	48.6	-0.7	Moderate & steady
WEBI	Earnings Beat	68.9	—	Elevated & cooling
WBTP	Bitcoin Path	9.4	+0.7	Very low & steady
WALT	Altcoin Heat	29.9	-1.1	Low & cooling
WAWD	Awards Race	54.6	-1.5	Moderate & cooling
WSTW	Storm Watch	48.3	—	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WFAV	Favorites Combo	64.8	—	Elevated
WSOC	Soccer Heat	62.5	—	Elevated
WNFL	Gridiron Futures	52.9	—	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WWRI	World Risk	19.8	—	Very low & cooling, volatile
WMSI	Macro Stress	16.1	—	Very low & cooling
WUPR	US Political Risk	32.2	—	Low & cooling, volatile

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.