The Index Desk Report
LATESTTuesday, August 4, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
19.8Very low
29 / 29 live3 elevated16 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.8 (Very low), flat.
Published at 19.8 (Very low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (25→28%) +0.4; recession-odds (25% leg) (24→23%) −0.2.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 16 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +13.5bps expected change (43% hold); cumulative +23.9bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.34% (80% band 3.2–3.48%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WNFL 60.1 (▲7.9) — Rose 7.9 to 60.1 (Elevated), led by Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner? — Canelo… (left the basket) −5.1; Harry Kane — Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? (56→55%) +1.8; Los Angeles D — Pro Baseball Champion (42→41%) +1.0.
- WFLA 52.6 (▼6.5) — Fell 6.5 to 52.6 (Moderate), led by US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (32→36%) +1.1; US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? (93→96%) +0.9; Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations… (98→97%) −0.6.
- WDCW 29.4 (▼3.1) — Fell 3.1 to 29.4 (Low), led by Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps afte… (57→55%) −0.5; US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? (68→65%) +0.2; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (90→86%) +0.2.
- WELW 26.4 (▼2.8) — Fell 2.8 to 26.4 (Low), led by Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton… (93→96%) −0.9; Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (63→64%) −0.9; Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for… (86→87%) +0.6.
- WCDR 27.6 (▲2.4) — Rose 2.4 to 27.6 (Low), led by Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (53→72%) +2.1; Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (12→16%) +0.6; Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (25→26%) +0.5.
Projection watch
- WARI projected 20.4 in 14d (80% band 0–78), trending down.
- WCGF projected 0.5 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WPTI projected 10.1 in 14d (80% band 0–92), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 18.0 | -1.5 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 6.9 | — | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 50.0 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 42.0 | +0.8 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.0 | -0.8 | Low & climbing |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.0 | +0.5 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 27.6 | +2.4 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 46.1 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 28.2 | +0.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.3 | +1.2 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 54.5 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 49.7 | -0.8 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 54.4 | +0.8 | Moderate & steady |
| WELW | Election Week | 26.4 | -2.8 | Low & cooling |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 52.6 | -6.5 | Moderate & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.4 | -3.1 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.4 | -0.5 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 48.6 | -0.7 | Moderate & steady |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 75.5 | -2.3 | Elevated & cooling |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.4 | +0.7 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 29.9 | -1.1 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 54.6 | -1.5 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 48.3 | — | Moderate |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 29.5 | — | Low |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 62.5 | — | Elevated |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 60.1 | +7.9 | Elevated & steady |
| WWRI | World Risk | 19.8 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.6 | +0.5 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 32.2 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.