Tuesday, August 4, 2026

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.8 (Very low), flat.

Published at 19.8 (Very low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (25→28%) +0.4; recession-odds (25% leg) (24→23%) −0.2.

The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 16 calm (<40).

WET Implied · real-unit readings

• Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +13.5bps expected change (43% hold); cumulative +23.9bps by Dec 2026.
• Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.34% (80% band 3.2–3.48%, n=21 strikes).

Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.

What moved

• WNFL 60.1 (▲7.9) — Rose 7.9 to 60.1 (Elevated), led by Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner? — Canelo… (left the basket) −5.1; Harry Kane — Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? (56→55%) +1.8; Los Angeles D — Pro Baseball Champion (42→41%) +1.0.
• WFLA 52.6 (▼6.5) — Fell 6.5 to 52.6 (Moderate), led by US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (32→36%) +1.1; US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? (93→96%) +0.9; Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations… (98→97%) −0.6.
• WDCW 29.4 (▼3.1) — Fell 3.1 to 29.4 (Low), led by Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps afte… (57→55%) −0.5; US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? (68→65%) +0.2; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (90→86%) +0.2.
• WELW 26.4 (▼2.8) — Fell 2.8 to 26.4 (Low), led by Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton… (93→96%) −0.9; Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (63→64%) −0.9; Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for… (86→87%) +0.6.
• WCDR 27.6 (▲2.4) — Rose 2.4 to 27.6 (Low), led by Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (53→72%) +2.1; Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (12→16%) +0.6; Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the… (25→26%) +0.5.

Projection watch

• WARI projected 20.4 in 14d (80% band 0–78), trending down.
• WCGF projected 0.5 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
• WPTI projected 10.1 in 14d (80% band 0–92), trending down.

The full board

Ticker	Index	Score	1d	Regime
WGRI	Geopolitical Risk	18.0	-1.5	Very low & cooling, volatile
WFPI	Fed Path	6.9	—	Very low & climbing
WEHI	Election Heat	50.0	—	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WARI	AI Race	42.0	+0.8	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WRCI	Recession Odds	23.0	-0.8	Low & climbing
WCGF	Crypto Greed	21.0	+0.5	Low & cooling, volatile
WCDR	Climate Risk	27.6	+2.4	Low & cooling, volatile
WCHI	Culture Heat	46.1	—	Moderate & climbing, volatile
WPTI	Political Turmoil	28.2	+0.8	Low & cooling, volatile
WCOS	Commodity Stress	13.3	+1.2	Very low & cooling, volatile
WSHI	Sports Heat	54.5	—	Moderate & cooling, volatile
WEGF	Equity Greed	49.7	-0.8	Moderate & cooling
WMID	Midterm Control	54.4	+0.8	Moderate & steady
WELW	Election Week	26.4	-2.8	Low & cooling
WFLA	Flashpoint Watch	52.6	-6.5	Moderate & cooling
WDCW	Washington Week	29.4	-3.1	Low & cooling
WGEA	Global Easing	27.4	-0.5	Low & steady
WINF	Inflation Watch	48.6	-0.7	Moderate & steady
WEBI	Earnings Beat	75.5	-2.3	Elevated & cooling
WBTP	Bitcoin Path	9.4	+0.7	Very low & steady
WALT	Altcoin Heat	29.9	-1.1	Low & cooling
WAWD	Awards Race	54.6	-1.5	Moderate & cooling
WSTW	Storm Watch	48.3	—	Moderate
WFAV	Favorites Combo	29.5	—	Low
WSOC	Soccer Heat	62.5	—	Elevated
WNFL	Gridiron Futures	60.1	+7.9	Elevated & steady
WWRI	World Risk	19.8	—	Very low & cooling, volatile
WMSI	Macro Stress	15.6	+0.5	Very low & cooling
WUPR	US Political Risk	32.2	—	Low & cooling, volatile

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.