The Index Desk Report
Monday, August 3, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
19.6Very low
29 / 29 live3 elevated16 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.6 (Very low), flat.
Published at 19.6 (Very low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) +0.1.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 16 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +13.7bps expected change (42% hold); cumulative +26.3bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.34% (80% band 3.2–3.48%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WNFL 60.1 (▲7.9) — Rose 7.9 to 60.1 (Elevated), led by Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? — Camero… (left the basket) −6.2; Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? +2.8; Harry Kane — Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? (55→56%) +1.7.
- WFLA 52.2 (▼6.5) — Fell 6.5 to 52.2 (Moderate), led by US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (36→35%) −0.6; US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? +0.6; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (31→32%) +0.3.
- WELW 29.2 (▼4.8) — Fell 4.8 to 29.2 (Low), led by Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton… (80→93%) −3.0; Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (63→63%) −1.2; Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-0… (71→65%) +0.7.
- WDCW 29.5 (▼3.1) — Fell 3.1 to 29.5 (Low), led by Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur… (28→33%) +0.6; Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps afte… (59→57%) −0.5; US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? (72→68%) +0.4.
- WEBI 75.5 (▼2.3) — Fell 2.3 to 75.5 (Elevated), led by Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? −0.7; Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? (49→49%) +0.6; Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? −0.4.
Projection watch
- WARI projected 19.8 in 14d (80% band 0–81), trending down.
- WCGF projected 0.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WGRI projected 4.9 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 18.0 | -1.5 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 6.7 | — | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 50.0 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 41.4 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.9 | — | Low & climbing |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 20.5 | -0.7 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 24.9 | +0.6 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 46.0 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 28.3 | +0.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.3 | +1.2 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 54.5 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 50.2 | -0.7 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 53.6 | -0.6 | Moderate |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.2 | -4.8 | Low |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 52.2 | -6.5 | Moderate |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.5 | -3.1 | Low |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.4 | -0.5 | Low |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 48.4 | -0.7 | Moderate |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 75.5 | -2.3 | Elevated |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.0 | +0.7 | Very low |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 29.7 | -1.1 | Low |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 54.3 | -1.5 | Moderate |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 48.3 | — | Moderate |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 29.5 | — | Low |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 62.5 | — | Elevated |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 60.1 | +7.9 | Elevated |
| WWRI | World Risk | 19.6 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.9 | +0.5 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 32.2 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.