The Index Desk Report
Sunday, August 2, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.5 (Very low), flat.
Published at 19.5 (Very low), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (19→18%) −0.6; commodity-stress (20% leg) (12→13%) +0.2; climate-risk (15% leg) (25→25%) +0.1.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 17 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +14bps expected change (41% hold); cumulative +26.1bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.34% (80% band 3.18–3.48%, n=21 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WSTW 36.6 (▼21.9) — Fell 21.9 to 36.6 (Low), led by Will the high temp in NYC be 86-87° on Aug 1, 2… (99→50%) −10.3; Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? (68→70%) −2.7; Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C… (54→1%) −2.1.
- WNFL 60.1 (▲7.9) — Rose 7.9 to 60.1 (Elevated), led by Lamont Roach vs William Zepeda Winner? — Lamont Roa… (left the basket) −17.8; Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner? — Fl… (left the basket) −13.8; Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? — Camero… (added to the basket) +6.2.
- WFLA 52.6 (▼6.5) — Fell 6.5 to 52.6 (Moderate), led by Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (58→31%) −5.3; US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? (62→33%) −3.9; US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (26→36%) +2.3.
- WDCW 29.5 (▼3.1) — Fell 3.1 to 29.5 (Low), led by Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur… (39→28%) −1.6; Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations… (9→2%) −1.4; Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiatio… (16→7%) −0.5.
- WGRI 17.8 (▼1.5) — Fell 1.5 to 17.8 (Very low), led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (26→20%) −1.5; Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? (9→8%) −0.1; Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end… (77→80%) +0.1.
Projection watch
- WCGF projected 0.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WARI projected 21.3 in 14d (80% band 0–86), trending down.
- WCOS projected 0.2 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.8 | -1.5 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 6.5 | — | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 49.7 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 40.9 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.9 | — | Low & climbing |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.2 | -0.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 25.2 | +0.6 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 46.3 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.7 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 13.3 | +1.2 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 54.5 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 50.5 | -0.7 | Moderate |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 53.9 | +0.5 | Moderate |
| WELW | Election Week | 34.0 | -0.7 | Low |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 52.6 | -6.5 | Moderate |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.5 | -3.1 | Low |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.1 | -0.5 | Low |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 48.8 | — | Moderate |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 77.8 | -0.5 | Elevated |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 9.1 | +0.7 | Very low |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 30.8 | -1.5 | Low |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 55.8 | — | Moderate |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 36.6 | -21.9 | Low |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 29.5 | — | Low |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 62.5 | — | Elevated |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 60.1 | +7.9 | Elevated |
| WWRI | World Risk | 19.5 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.8 | — | Very low |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 31.8 | — | Low |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.