The Index Desk Report
Saturday, August 1, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
19.8Very low
29 / 29 live3 elevated15 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.8 (Very low), flat.
Constituents rebalanced; the basket changed too much to chain, so the series is rebased at 19.8 and price moves resume tomorrow. Not a market move.
The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 15 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +14.2bps expected change (40% hold); cumulative +26.9bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.33% (80% band 3.17–3.48%, n=21 strikes).
Vig-stripped, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WSOC 60.9 (▼9.1) — Fell 9.1 to 60.9 (Elevated), led by New York Y vs Chicago C Winner? — Chicago C (left the basket) −5.5; Texas vs Houston Winner? — Texas (left the basket) −4.7; Philadelphia vs Baltimore Winner? — Philadelphia (62→61%) +3.5.
- WNFL 60.1 (▲7.9) — Rose 7.9 to 60.1 (Elevated), led by Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner? — Fl… (added to the basket) +13.8; Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? — Camero… (left the basket) −6.2; Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? +0.2.
- WFLA 58.9 (▼1.7) — Fell 1.7 to 58.9 (Moderate), led by Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations… (92→91%) −0.1.
- WFAV 54.4 (▼0.7) — Fell 0.7 to 54.4 (Moderate), led by Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati Winner? — Pittsburgh (83→79%) −0.4; Philadelphia vs Baltimore Winner? — Philadelphia (62→61%) −0.1; New York Y vs Chicago C Winner? — Chicago C (71→72%) +0.1.
- WMID 54.2 (▲0.5) — Rose 0.5 to 54.2 (Moderate).
Projection watch
- WCGF projected 0.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WARI projected 26.8 in 14d (80% band 0–97), trending down.
- WCOS projected 0.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 19.3 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 6.5 | — | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 49.9 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 41.2 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 23.8 | — | Low |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 22.0 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 24.6 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 45.9 | — | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.5 | — | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 12.1 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 55.2 | — | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 51.2 | — | Moderate |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 54.2 | +0.5 | Moderate |
| WELW | Election Week | 34.7 | +0.5 | Low |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 58.9 | -1.7 | Moderate |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 32.6 | — | Low |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 27.2 | — | Low |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 49.1 | — | Moderate |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 78.1 | — | Elevated |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 8.8 | — | Very low |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 32.3 | — | Low |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 55.8 | — | Moderate |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 58.7 | — | Moderate |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 54.4 | -0.7 | Moderate |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 60.9 | -9.1 | Elevated |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 60.1 | +7.9 | Elevated |
| WWRI | World Risk | 19.8 | — | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 15.4 | — | Very low |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 32.2 | — | Low |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.