The Index Desk Report

Saturday, August 1, 2026

The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.

Headline · WWRI

W.E.T. World Risk Index

19.8Very low
29 / 29 live3 elevated15 calm

W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 19.8 (Very low), flat.

Constituents rebalanced; the basket changed too much to chain, so the series is rebased at 19.8 and price moves resume tomorrow. Not a market move.

The board: 29 of 29 benchmarks live — 3 elevated (≥60), 15 calm (<40).

WET Implied · real-unit readings

  • Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +14.2bps expected change (40% hold); cumulative +26.9bps by Dec 2026.
  • Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.33% (80% band 3.17–3.48%, n=21 strikes).

Vig-stripped, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.

What moved

  • WSOC 60.9 (▼9.1) — Fell 9.1 to 60.9 (Elevated), led by New York Y vs Chicago C Winner? — Chicago C (left the basket) −5.5; Texas vs Houston Winner? — Texas (left the basket) −4.7; Philadelphia vs Baltimore Winner? — Philadelphia (62→61%) +3.5.
  • WNFL 60.1 (▲7.9) — Rose 7.9 to 60.1 (Elevated), led by Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner? — Fl… (added to the basket) +13.8; Will Cameron Young win the Rocket Classic? — Camero… (left the basket) −6.2; Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? +0.2.
  • WFLA 58.9 (▼1.7) — Fell 1.7 to 58.9 (Moderate), led by Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations… (92→91%) −0.1.
  • WFAV 54.4 (▼0.7) — Fell 0.7 to 54.4 (Moderate), led by Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati Winner? — Pittsburgh (83→79%) −0.4; Philadelphia vs Baltimore Winner? — Philadelphia (62→61%) −0.1; New York Y vs Chicago C Winner? — Chicago C (71→72%) +0.1.
  • WMID 54.2 (▲0.5) — Rose 0.5 to 54.2 (Moderate).

Projection watch

  • WCGF projected 0.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
  • WARI projected 26.8 in 14d (80% band 0–97), trending down.
  • WCOS projected 0.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.

The full board

Ticker Index Score 1d Regime
WGRI Geopolitical Risk 19.3 Very low & cooling, volatile
WFPI Fed Path 6.5 Very low & climbing
WEHI Election Heat 49.9 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WARI AI Race 41.2 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WRCI Recession Odds 23.8 Low
WCGF Crypto Greed 22.0 Low & cooling, volatile
WCDR Climate Risk 24.6 Low & cooling, volatile
WCHI Culture Heat 45.9 Moderate & climbing, volatile
WPTI Political Turmoil 27.5 Low & cooling, volatile
WCOS Commodity Stress 12.1 Very low & cooling, volatile
WSHI Sports Heat 55.2 Moderate & cooling, volatile
WEGF Equity Greed 51.2 Moderate
WMID Midterm Control 54.2 +0.5 Moderate
WELW Election Week 34.7 +0.5 Low
WFLA Flashpoint Watch 58.9 -1.7 Moderate
WDCW Washington Week 32.6 Low
WGEA Global Easing 27.2 Low
WINF Inflation Watch 49.1 Moderate
WEBI Earnings Beat 78.1 Elevated
WBTP Bitcoin Path 8.8 Very low
WALT Altcoin Heat 32.3 Low
WAWD Awards Race 55.8 Moderate
WSTW Storm Watch 58.7 Moderate
WFAV Favorites Combo 54.4 -0.7 Moderate
WSOC Soccer Heat 60.9 -9.1 Elevated
WNFL Gridiron Futures 60.1 +7.9 Elevated
WWRI World Risk 19.8 Very low & cooling, volatile
WMSI Macro Stress 15.4 Very low
WUPR US Political Risk 32.2 Low

Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.