The Index Desk Report
Friday, July 31, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 41.2 (Moderate), up 13.1.
Rose 13.1 to 41.2 (Moderate), led by geopolitical-risk (40% leg) (37→61%) +9.6; commodity-stress (20% leg) (14→30%) +3.2; climate-risk (15% leg) (42→44%) +0.3.
The board: 15 of 15 benchmarks live — 4 elevated (≥60), 6 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +14.7bps expected change (38% hold); cumulative +26.4bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Jul 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.34% (80% band 3.17–3.48%, n=21 strikes).
Vig-stripped, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WGRI 60.8 (▲23.9) — Rose 23.9 to 60.8 (Elevated), led by Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Ele… (new) +23.4; Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (new) +15.4; Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the n… (resolved/left) −11.7.
- WCGF 25.0 (▲19.4) — Rose 19.4 to 25.0 (Low).
- WCOS 29.6 (▲15.8) — Rose 15.8 to 29.6 (Low), led by Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of Decemb… (new) +14.1; Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? (new) +5.9; Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August? (resolved/left) −3.4.
- WEGF 54.5 (▼13.4) — Fell 13.4 to 54.5 (Moderate), led by Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at… (81→80%) −0.3; Will the USD/JPY open price be below 157.250 at Aug… +0.1.
- WPTI 19.8 (▼13.1) — Fell 13.1 to 19.8 (Very low), led by Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? (62→61%) −0.3; Will no listed leader be out before 2027? (new) +0.2; Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? (65→63%) −0.1.
Projection watch
- WCGF projected 0.0 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WCHI projected 77.1 in 14d (80% band 24–100), trending up.
- WSHI projected 92.1 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending up.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 60.8 | +23.9 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 8.1 | -1.1 | Very low & climbing |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 55.8 | +5.3 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 61.9 | -0.8 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 17.1 | +0.5 | Very low |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 25.0 | +19.4 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 44.3 | +2.0 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 60.8 | +9.0 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 19.8 | -13.1 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 29.6 | +15.8 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 79.3 | +0.9 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 54.5 | -13.4 | Moderate |
| WWRI | World Risk | 41.2 | +13.1 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 19.2 | +5.5 | Very low |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 40.8 | +7.4 | Moderate |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.