WRAT2

Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print75 held · close 2026-09-08

955.08−4.49%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 955.08
Since inception: −4.49%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 46.7% of 75
1 day: −0.36%
7 day: −0.04%
Markets held: 75
Settled: 0
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 52.4%
Inception: 2026-08-18
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 18

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 75 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 28cpolymarketNO28c33c+14.0%11.6%Polymarket ↗
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 61c1.0¢ spread · 98.7k/52.8k within 5¢polymarketNO61c38c−38.5%11.0%Polymarket ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c52c+58.5%10.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 77cpolymarketNO77c70c−9.2%10.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 6c2 sessions stalekalshiYES6c5c−18.2%9.5%Kalshi ↗
Fed rate hike in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 52cpolymarketNO52c30c−42.7%6.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.3¢ spread · 5116.1k/56.8k within 5¢polymarketYES5c3c−27.2%6.7%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 76cpolymarketNO76c56c−25.2%6.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c2 sessions stalekalshiYES2c2c−25.0%5.9%Kalshi ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 73cpolymarketNO73c48c−34.5%2.7%Polymarket ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 39cpolymarketNO39c40c+2.6%2.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 16c1.1¢ spread · 2.0k/15.8k within 5¢kalshiYES16c11c−28.5%1.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c7c−22.4%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 80cpolymarketNO80c76c−5.6%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 77ckalshiNO77c74c−3.9%1.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 97c2 sessions stalekalshiNO97c88c−9.8%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c88c−10.7%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in September 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiNO95c95c−0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 96cpolymarketNO96c99c+3.6%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+0.5%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c3c−35.8%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 98cpolymarketNO98c98c−0.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c14c−6.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiNO3c4c+40.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7c2 sessions stalekalshiNO7c4c−46.2%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 96c2 sessions stalekalshiNO96c94c−1.6%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c95c−1.7%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 48cpolymarketNO48c71c+46.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiNO93c93c+0.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 88cpolymarketNO88c76c−13.7%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 9c2.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES9c12c+41.2%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 29ckalshiNO29c32c+8.6%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c98c−0.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 9cpolymarketNO9c11c+23.9%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 33ckalshiNO33c52c+58.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 94cpolymarketNO94c89c−5.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 11c2 sessions stalekalshiNO11c11c−4.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiNO3c3c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 75ckalshiNO75c59c−21.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 27cpolymarketNO27c18c−32.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 5c2 sessions stalekalshiNO5c6c+10.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 6c2 sessions stalekalshiNO6c6c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c95c−0.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 8c2 sessions stalekalshiNO8c8c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c1c−77.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?polymarket · NO · entry 93c7.6¢ spread · 9.6k/383 within 5¢polymarketNO93c91c−1.7%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7c2 sessions stalekalshiNO7c5c−23.1%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
ECB rate cut in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 2.6k/1.3k within 5¢polymarketYES9c5c−50.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 75 constituents by weight.

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 75

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent

93.33%

Π of the individual probabilities

True range · any correlation

93.1–97.7%

Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 4.5pp wide

NOBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?99%

NOWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?99%

NOWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?99%

NOWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?99%

NOBank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?98%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.