WRAT2

Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print71 held · close 2026-11-05

776.15−22.38%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 776.15
Since inception: −22.38%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 50.7% of 71
1 day: −0.17%
7 day: −1.48%
Markets held: 71
Settled: 4
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 64.4%
Inception: 2026-08-18
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 53

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 71 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 33cpolymarketNO33c79c+141.5%10.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 77c13 sessions stalepolymarketNO77c84c+9.2%10.0%Polymarket ↗
Fed rate hike in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 52c28 sessions stalepolymarketNO52c1c−98.1%6.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 76cpolymarketNO76c23c−70.2%6.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c12 sessions stalekalshiYES2c1c−50.0%5.9%Kalshi ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 73c28 sessions stalepolymarketNO73c1c−98.6%2.7%Polymarket ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 39cpolymarketNO39c23c−41.6%2.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · YES · entry 16c2 sessions stale0.4¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES16c2c−85.9%1.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c1c−88.5%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 80cpolymarketNO80c82c+1.9%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 77c15 sessions stalekalshiNO77c82c+6.5%1.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 97ckalshiNO97c98c+0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in September 2026?kalshi · NO · entry 95c25 sessions stalekalshiNO95c95c−0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 96c13 sessions stalepolymarketNO96c99c+3.6%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c15 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c1c−81.1%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 98cpolymarketNO98c99c+1.1%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c1c−90.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 3ckalshiNO3c1c−60.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7c16 sessions stalekalshiNO7c1c−84.6%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 96ckalshiNO96c99c+3.1%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 97cpolymarketNO97c99c+2.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 48c28 sessions stalepolymarketNO48c98c+103.1%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 93c15 sessions stalekalshiNO93c80c−14.1%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 88cpolymarketNO88c23c−74.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 9c4.0¢ spread · 53.2k/8.3k within 5¢kalshiYES9c2c−82.4%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c13 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 29c13 sessions stalekalshiNO29c18c−39.7%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+0.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 9c13 sessions stalepolymarketNO9c30c+229.9%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 33ckalshiNO33c80c+144.6%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 94c13 sessions stalepolymarketNO94c69c−26.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 11ckalshiNO11c3c−72.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 3ckalshiNO3c2c−40.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 75ckalshiNO75c21c−72.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 27c13 sessions stalepolymarketNO27c13c−52.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 5ckalshiNO5c1c−80.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 6ckalshiNO6c2c−72.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c98c+2.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 8ckalshiNO8c3c−66.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 4c12 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c1c−77.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?polymarket · NO · entry 93c6.9¢ spread · 253/346 within 5¢polymarketNO93c91c−1.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7ckalshiNO7c3c−61.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98ckalshiNO98c99c+1.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
ECB rate cut in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 2.3k/3.7k within 5¢polymarketYES9c3c−62.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 7ckalshiNO7c3c−64.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 14c13 sessions stalepolymarketNO14c87c+496.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 20c13 sessions stalepolymarketNO20c6c−71.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 17ckalshiNO17c1c−93.9%0.1%Kalshi ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 71 constituents by weight.

Settled · 4

graded outcomes — the basket's realized record

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?yes−100.0%

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?yes−100.0%

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?no−100.0%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?no−100.0%

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 71

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent

95.10%

Π of the individual probabilities

True range · any correlation

95.0–99.0%

Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 4.0pp wide

NOBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?99%

NOWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?99%

NOWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?99%

NOWill 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?99%

NOWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?99%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.