WRATE

Rate — Economics, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print75 held · close 2026-09-08

1115.48+11.55%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 1115.48
Since inception: +11.55%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 46.7% of 75
1 day: +0.80%
7 day: +1.10%
Markets held: 75
Settled: 0
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 44.8%
Inception: 2026-08-18
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 18

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 75 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 72cpolymarketYES72c68c−5.6%11.6%Polymarket ↗
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 39c1.0¢ spread · 98.7k/52.8k within 5¢polymarketYES39c63c+60.3%11.0%Polymarket ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c49c−28.1%10.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c31c+29.8%10.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiNO95c96c+1.1%9.5%Kalshi ↗
Fed rate hike in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 49cpolymarketYES49c71c+45.4%6.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95c0.3¢ spread · 5116.1k/56.8k within 5¢polymarketNO95c97c+1.3%6.7%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25cpolymarketYES25c44c+77.6%6.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+0.5%5.9%Kalshi ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28cpolymarketYES28c53c+90.9%2.7%Polymarket ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 62cpolymarketYES62c61c−1.6%2.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · NO · entry 84c1.1¢ spread · 2.0k/15.8k within 5¢kalshiNO84c89c+5.3%1.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c93c+2.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c25c+22.5%1.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24ckalshiYES24c27c+12.8%1.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiYES3c13c+316.7%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 2c2 sessions stalekalshiYES2c13c+525.0%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.4% in September 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalekalshiYES5c6c+10.0%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c2c−25.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c97c+1.9%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c+11.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 86cpolymarketNO86c87c+1.2%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiYES98c97c−1.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c97c+3.2%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalekalshiYES5c6c+33.3%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c5c+47.1%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 52cpolymarketYES52c30c−43.3%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c2 sessions stalekalshiYES8c7c−6.7%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c25c+96.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92c2.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiNO92c88c−3.8%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71ckalshiYES71c69c−3.5%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c2 sessions stalekalshiYES2c3c+25.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 91cpolymarketYES91c89c−2.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c49c−28.1%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c11c+93.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89c2 sessions stalekalshiYES89c90c+0.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c42c+62.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 74cpolymarketYES74c82c+11.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c−0.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c5c+2.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?polymarket · NO · entry 96cpolymarketNO96c99c+3.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?polymarket · YES · entry 7c7.6¢ spread · 9.6k/383 within 5¢polymarketYES7c9c+20.3%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c95c+1.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
ECB rate cut in 2026?polymarket · NO · entry 91c1.0¢ spread · 2.6k/1.3k within 5¢polymarketNO91c96c+4.9%0.1%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 75 constituents by weight.

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 75

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent

88.77%

Π of the individual probabilities

True range · any correlation

88.3–96.6%

Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 8.3pp wide

NOWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?99%

NOWill the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?99%

YESWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?98%

NOWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?97%

NOWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?97%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.