Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

ElectionsSun 8:00 AM

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Evidence & research ↓

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The Market Read

18 listings in the selected Polymarket event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Polymarket markets18Polymarket volume$8.2MEvent venuesPolymarketchecking coverage…

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Checking other venues. The selected venue listings are available below.

Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

Renan Santos

Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$1.4M vol

Flávio Bolsonaro

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$1.3M vol

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$1.1M vol

Fernando Haddad

Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$813.6K vol

Ratinho Júnior

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$750.2K vol

Ronaldo Caiado

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$570.6K vol

Romeu Zema

Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$421.7K vol

Augusto Cury

Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$288.5K vol

Tarcisio de Freitas

Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$274.6K vol

Geraldo Alckmin

Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$234.1K vol

Michelle Bolsonaro

Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$229K vol

Camilo Santana

Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$207.8K vol

Jair Bolsonaro

Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$205.3K vol

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$174K vol

Aldo Rebelo

Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$144.7K vol

Eduardo Leite

Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$142.4K vol

Tereza Cristina

Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$36.5K vol

Helder Barbalho

Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC·$22K vol

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: 18 listing keys checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2026-10-04 00:00 UTCPolymarket contracts closevenue close
2026-10-05 03:59 UTC

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Market

Refused · no-source

no stored capture for this event yet

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 04:02 UTC: no odds-single-listing/v3 rows for polymarket:brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place since 2026-09-22

Retires when the odds capture writes a row for this event (it covers the live markets directory only, change-gated hourly)

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this…
Full text
election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)

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