ElectionsOct 3

Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?

Oct 4, 2026

Stored event-graph relation · view the related analysis →

The Market Read

6 listings in the selected Kalshi event.

No event-level probability, favorite, or “tight race” is inferred across these propositions. Use the listing table for each venue’s exact question and observation.

Kalshi markets6Kalshi volume20K contractsEvent venuesFutuurKalshiPolymarketKalshichecking coverage…

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Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead, remains tied with Bolsonaro in runoff polls

Reuters · 13h ago

Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead; runoff with Bolsonaro stays tight, BTG/Nexus poll shows

Yahoo News Singapore · 15h ago

Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls

Al Jazeera · 7d ago

Deforestation Is on the Ballot in Brazil’s Presidential Election

sentientmedia.org · 20d ago

Lula says he will warn Trump at UN General Assembly against interfering in Brazil’s election

Anadolu Ajansı · 11d ago

Polls show Lula leading ahead of Brazil's presidential election

Xinhua · 12d ago

Lula to warn Trump against interfering in Brazil’s elections — Anadolu Agency

UA.NEWS · 11d ago

Lula Strikes Deal With Congress to Advance Pre-Election Agenda

Bloomberg · 34d ago

Scanning the wire…

Markets on this event

One outcome · all venue odds · open listing details

Aligned outcomes share one row. Each quote retains its venue and observation time. NO marks the opposite contract side; measurement, cutoff, settlement rules and fees can differ.

Candidates

21Futuur · Kalshi · Polymarket

Aldo Rebelo

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Augusto Cury

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Eduardo Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Fernando Haddad

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Flávio Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi56.5%02:28 UTCPolymarket57.9%02:28 UTC

Jair Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

3 venues · Terms may differ

Futuur48%02:28 UTCKalshi44.5%02:28 UTCPolymarket41.5%02:28 UTC

Michelle Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Ratinho Júnior

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Renan Santos

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.8%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.4%02:28 UTC

Romeu Zema

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Ronaldo Caiado

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Tarcísio de Freitas

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Camilo Santana

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$5.6M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Ciro Gomes

Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·238 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Eduardo Leite

Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$8M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Geraldo Alckmin

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$7M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Helder Barbalho

Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$2.4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Pablo Marçal

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Tereza Cristina

Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Outcomes

15Futuur · Kalshi

Renan Santos

Will Renan Santos qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·6K contracts vol

Yes 3%No 97%

Flavio Bolsonaro

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·5.1K contracts vol

Yes 98%No 2%

Ronaldo Caiado

Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·4.3K contracts vol

Yes 2%No 98%

Michelle Bolsonaro

Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·2.6K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·2K contracts vol

Yes 96%No 4%

Romeu Zema

Will Romeu Zema qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·63 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Aldo Rebelo

Brazil’s Next President Elect