PoliticsFri 8:00 AM

Brazil’s Next President Elect

Evidence & research ↓

Stored event-graph relation · view the related analysis →

Futuur markets1Futuur volume$27.4KEvent venuesFutuurKalshiPolymarketFutuurchecking coverage…

Driving Coverage

Open the Newsroom →

Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest

Chatham House · 14h ago

The big question looming over Brazil’s elections: Trump’s next move

Inquirer.com · 6h ago

Brazil’s Biggest Election Question?: Donald Trump’s Next Move

The New York Times · 12h ago

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Al Jazeera · 4d ago

‘Viscerally dedicated to social issues’: behind Lula’s drive to win final term in Brazil’s crunch election

The Guardian · 2d ago

Get-out-the-vote efforts often focus on youth. Brazil is eyeing people over 70. - Christian Science Monitor

CSMonitor.com · 6d ago

Lula da Silva or Flavio Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote

DW.com · 3d ago

Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro: What to know about Brazil’s election

Buenos Aires Herald · 2d ago

Scanning the wire…

Markets on this event

One outcome · all venue odds · open listing details

Aligned outcomes share one row. Each quote retains its venue and observation time. NO marks the opposite contract side; measurement, cutoff, settlement rules and fees can differ.

Candidates

21Futuur · Kalshi · Polymarket

Aldo Rebelo

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Augusto Cury

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.5%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Eduardo Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Fernando Haddad

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Flávio Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi56.5%02:28 UTCPolymarket57.9%02:28 UTC

Jair Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

3 venues · Terms may differ

Futuur48%02:28 UTCKalshi44.5%02:28 UTCPolymarket41.5%02:28 UTC

Michelle Bolsonaro

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Ratinho Júnior

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Renan Santos

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.8%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.4%02:28 UTC

Romeu Zema

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Ronaldo Caiado

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Tarcísio de Freitas

2 venues · Terms may differ

Kalshi0.1%02:28 UTCPolymarket0.1%02:28 UTC

Camilo Santana

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$5.6M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Ciro Gomes

Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·238 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Eduardo Leite

Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$8M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Geraldo Alckmin

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$7M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Helder Barbalho

Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$2.4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Pablo Marçal

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Tereza Cristina

Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·$4M vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Outcomes

15Futuur · Kalshi

Renan Santos

Will Renan Santos qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·6K contracts vol

Yes 3%No 97%

Flavio Bolsonaro

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·5.1K contracts vol

Yes 98%No 2%

Ronaldo Caiado

Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·4.3K contracts vol

Yes 2%No 98%

Michelle Bolsonaro

Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·2.6K contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·2K contracts vol

Yes 96%No 4%

Romeu Zema

Will Romeu Zema qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-09-29 02:28 UTC·63 contracts vol

Yes 1%No 99%

Aldo Rebelo

Brazil’s Next President Elect