Who will be evicted from Big Brother? (Week 1) — Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 19, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (July 19, 2026) was a 99% implied probability for Ashley Trail on Polymarket, on $50.2K in traded volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Ashley Trail — market favorite
Polymarket · $50.2K traded
99%
Implied
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 19, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Ashley Trail | Polymarket | 99% | $4.6K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 30/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 17/30 | $50.2K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 8/20 | Priced on one venue only — no independent book to check the number against, so this component sits at a neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 2/15 | 1 tracked market on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 3/15 | 2 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Ashley Trail at 99% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 44% at the start of coverage to 99% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 99% implied probability for Ashley Trail on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: Ashley Trail at 99% implied probability. Across the event's tracked markets, $50K changed hands.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 2 days: Ashley Trail opened our coverage at 44%, ranged between 44% and 99%, and closed at 99%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, money-weighted estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Entertainment odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Who will be evicted from Big Brother? (Week 1)?
The market closed with Ashley Trail at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final money-weighted read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Who will be evicted from Big Brother? (Week 1) right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 99% for Ashley Trail. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this live odds card on your site, newsletter, or blog — it refreshes as the market moves. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse widgets for every market on the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/who-will-be-evicted-from-big-brother-week-1-odds-2026-07-16" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Who will be evicted from Big Brother? (Week 1) — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/who-will-be-evicted-from-big-brother-week-1-odds-2026-07-16?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=who-will-be-evicted-from-big-brother-week-1-odds-2026-07-16">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.