Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build
By Corbin V King · Updated November 5, 2026
In W.E.T.'s November 5, 2026 pre-event snapshot, one attributed Polymarket listing recorded a 95% implied probability for None, with $78M in venue-reported volume. The event time has since passed, but settlement has not been recorded in this corpus.
Expired pre-event probability snapshot
Market favorite
None — market favorite
Polymarket · $78M reported volume
95%
Implied
Odds — expired pre-event snapshotas of November 5, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
None | Polymarket | 95% | $10.2M |
AK | Polymarket | 5% | $1.5M |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. The event time is now behind the corpus clock, but W.E.T. has no settlement write, so this remains an expired unresolved snapshot.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 5, 2026 snapshot · 46/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $78M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 3/15 | 2 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 5/15 | 3 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices None at 95% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $78M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, November 5 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) at 95% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 2 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $78M in venue-native event volume. None leads at 95%, a strong favorite, ahead of AK at 5%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How election markets like this resolve
Election markets resolve on the certified result. The displayed number is a venue-attributed market price — often ahead of, and sometimes at odds with, the polling average.
What could move it
New polls, candidate entries and exits, debate performances, fundraising, and primary and general results move these markets. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 95% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 95¢ implies a 95% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, November 5; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Elections market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Elections odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)?
As of Thursday, November 5, Polymarket price None at 95% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of None?
The prediction market implies a 95% chance of None on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/which-senate-swing-states-will-republicans-win-build-your-map-odds-2026-11-03?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=which-senate-swing-states-will-republicans-win-build-your-map-odds-2026-11-03">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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