What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated July 22, 2026
Final prediction market odds for What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19: ↑ 66,000 closed at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. Settled-market archive —…
Price ladder — what the market is pricing
Even odds to reach
—/—
down / up, at 50% or better
Where the weight is
14% below
priced to travel up
Rungs priced
8
thresholds with a recorded mark
Each rung is a market: ↑ reach that level or higher, ↓ fall to it or lower. Bar = implied probability.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 22, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
↑ 70,000 | Polymarket | 1% | $218.5K |
↑ 66,000 | Polymarket | 7% | $201.6K |
↑ 68,000 | Polymarket | 1% | $173.6K |
↓ 60,000 | Polymarket | 1% | $146.8K |
↑ 72,000 | Polymarket | 1% | $122.9K |
↓ 58,000 | Polymarket | 1% | $111.1K |
↑ 76,000 | Polymarket | 1% | $108.1K |
↑ 74,000 | Polymarket | 1% | $101.4K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 20/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: ↑ 66,000 at 7% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 57% at the start of coverage to 7% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 7% implied probability for ↑ 66,000 on Polymarket.
The market's final read
↑ 66,000 closed as the narrow leader of a wide field, at 7%. No attributable venue-native volume is published for this observation.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 6 days: ↑ 66,000 opened our coverage at 57%, ranged between 4% and 57%, and closed at 7%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Crypto odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19?
The market closed with ↑ 66,000 at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get What price will Bitcoin hit July 13-19 right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 7% for ↑ 66,000. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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Read on the WireW.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Explore retained event intelligence
This page is archival. Use the Event Dashboard to inspect separately dated, venue-attributed listings; numerical comparisons remain identity-gated.