Next Prime Minister of Spain? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated November 5, 2026
As of November 5, 2026, the prediction market implies a 89% chance of Alberto Núñez Feijóo on Polymarket, with $2.7M in venue-reported volume.
▲ 84% → 89%since November 2, 2026
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Alberto Núñez Feijóo — market favorite
Polymarket · $2.7M reported volume
89%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 5, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Alberto Núñez Feijóo | Polymarket | 89% | $588K |
Pedro Sánchez | Polymarket | 11% | $871.8K |
Santiago Abascal | Polymarket | 2% | $335K |
Isabel Díaz Ayuso | Polymarket | 1% | $278.4K |
Carlos Cuerpo | Polymarket | 1% | $229.7K |
Yolanda Díaz | Polymarket | 1% | $175.9K |
Óscar Puente | Polymarket | 1% | $75.5K |
María Jesús Montero | Polymarket | 1% | $35K |
Miguel Tellado | Polymarket | 1% | $34K |
Carles Puigdemont | Polymarket | 1% | $19.9K |
Ester Muñoz | Polymarket | 1% | $17.4K |
Borja Sémper | Polymarket | 1% | $17.3K |
Cuca Gamarra | Polymarket | 1% | $16.9K |
Pepa Millán | Polymarket | 1% | $16.3K |
Ernest Urtasun | Polymarket | 1% | $16.3K |
Aitor Esteban | Polymarket | 1% | $14.8K |
Emiliano García-Page | Polymarket | 1% | $1K |
Félix Bolaños | Polymarket | 1% | — |
Juanma Moreno | Polymarket | 1% | — |
Salvador Illa | Polymarket | 1% | — |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 20 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 5, 2026 snapshot · 78/100 · Strong Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $2.7M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 20 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 15/15 | 13 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (1)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Here’s Who Is Meeting Israel’s President to Recommend a Prime Minister
New York Times · Nov 5, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 89% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $2.7M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Thursday, November 5 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Next Prime Minister of Spain? at 89% implied probability on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 20 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $2.7M in venue-native event volume. Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads at 89%, a strong favorite, ahead of Pedro Sánchez at 11%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How election markets like this resolve
Election markets resolve on the certified result. The displayed number is a venue-attributed market price — often ahead of, and sometimes at odds with, the polling average.
What could move it
New polls, candidate entries and exits, debate performances, fundraising, and primary and general results move these markets. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 89% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 89¢ implies a 89% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Thursday, November 5; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Elections market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Elections odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
As of Thursday, November 5, Polymarket price Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 89% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Alberto Núñez Feijóo?
The prediction market implies a 89% chance of Alberto Núñez Feijóo on Polymarket as of Thursday, November 5 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners
An educational guide to how traders approach prediction markets: news catalysts, value versus the crowd, venue divergence, sizing, and beginner mistakes.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this dated odds snapshot on your site, newsletter, or blog. The card states its as-of date and attributed venue; it changes only when W.E.T. publishes a newer observation and does not independently stream the venue. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse available snapshot cards in the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/next-prime-minister-of-spain-odds-2026-11-30" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Next Prime Minister of Spain? — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/next-prime-minister-of-spain-odds-2026-11-30?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=next-prime-minister-of-spain-odds-2026-11-30">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Continue through event navigation
Browse fetched venue snapshots, catalysts, and attributed listings. Numerical comparisons remain withheld until the canonical graph confirms the same outcome and settlement basis.