Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated August 3, 2026
Final prediction market odds for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? — Odds: No release by July 31 closed at 98% implied probability on Polymarket…
Timing — when the market expects this
Implied median
not by Jul 31
the curve never reaches 50% on the priced rungs
Steepest window
Jul 27 → Jul 28
+1 points, the biggest jump
Rungs
7
deadlines priced
Each point is a market: the probability this has happened by that date. The curve can only rise, so its steepest stretch is the window the market is pricing.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 3, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
No release by July 31 | Polymarket | 98% | $130.2K |
July 30 | Polymarket | 1% | $23.7K |
July 29 | Polymarket | 1% | $7.9K |
July 31 | Polymarket | 1% | $7.6K |
July 28 | Polymarket | 2% | $7K |
July 26 | Polymarket | 1% | $4.2K |
July 25 | Polymarket | 1% | $4.1K |
July 27 | Polymarket | 1% | $3.6K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 30/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (1)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Google Releases Three New Gemini A.I. Models
New York Times · Jul 21, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: No release by July 31 at 98% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 90% at the start of coverage to 98% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 98% implied probability for No release by July 31 on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: No release by July 31 at 98% implied probability. No attributable venue-native volume is published for this observation.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 8 days: No release by July 31 opened our coverage at 90%, ranged between 76% and 98%, and closed at 98%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Tech odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? — Odds?
The market closed with No release by July 31 at 98% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? — Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 98% for No release by July 31. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Related topics
Are Prediction Markets Accurate? Evidence vs. Polls
A balanced look at prediction market accuracy: why traded odds often beat polls, what IEM research shows, and the failure modes that distort prices.
Read on the WireW.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Explore retained event intelligence
This page is archival. Use the Event Dashboard to inspect separately dated, venue-attributed listings; numerical comparisons remain identity-gated.