Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated August 2, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 2, 2026) was a 89% implied probability for August 31 on Polymarket, with $449.4K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
August 31 — market favorite
Polymarket · $449.4K reported volume
89%
Implied
Timing — when the market expects this
Implied median
Aug 13
where the market crosses even odds
Steepest window
Aug 7 → Aug 14
+42 points, the biggest jump
Rungs
4
deadlines priced
Each point is a market: the probability this has happened by that date. The curve can only rise, so its steepest stretch is the window the market is pricing.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 2, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
August 31 | Polymarket | 89% | $33.5K |
August 21 | Polymarket | 78% | $18.9K |
August 14 | Polymarket | 52% | $36K |
August 7 | Polymarket | 10% | $74.3K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 51/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 27/30 | $449.4K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 6/15 | 4 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (1)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Open Model Wars + Claire Stapleton’s Dishy Google Memoir + Substack’s Slop Fight
New York Times · Jul 31, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Read it here. Act on it with the desk.
Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: August 31 at 89% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 39% at the start of coverage to 89% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 89% implied probability for August 31 on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was August 31 at 89% — favored, but not a lock. The attributed event snapshot reports $449.4K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 11 days: August 31 opened our coverage at 39%, ranged between 39% and 92%, and closed at 89%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Tech odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — Odds?
The market closed with August 31 at 89% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? — Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 89% for August 31. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Related topics
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-by-odds-2026-07-31?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-by-odds-2026-07-31">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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