MLB: Home Runs Leader — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated September 30, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (September 30, 2026) was a 60% implied probability for Kyle Schwarber on Polymarket, with $3.2M in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Kyle Schwarber — market favorite
Polymarket · $3.2M reported volume
60%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
MLB
3 categories priced
Still contested
2
inside 15 points
Tightest
+1
RBIs Leader
RBIs Leader
Contested- Andy Pages3%
- Brandon Lowe2%
- Riley Greene2%
- Cal Raleigh1%
- Taylor Ward1%
- James Wood1%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
ERA Leadersettled
Contested- Dylan Cease6%
- Cristopher Sánchez3%
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto3%
- Shohei Ohtani2%
- Paul Skenes2%
- Jeffrey Springs1%
+3 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Home Runs Leadersettled
Decided- Kyle Schwarber60%
- Yordan Alvarez8%
- Matt Olson4%
- Junior Caminero3%
- Mike Trout1%
- Juan Soto1%
+52 pt margin · 24 nominees · 18 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled September 30, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Schwarber | Polymarket | 60% | $33.6K |
Yordan Alvarez | Polymarket | 8% | $12.7K |
Matt Olson | Polymarket | 4% | $4.3K |
Junior Caminero | Polymarket | 3% | $4.6K |
Mike Trout | Polymarket | 1% | $1.7M |
Juan Soto | Polymarket | 1% | $649.3K |
Brandon Lowe | Polymarket | 1% | $470.6K |
CJ Abrams | Polymarket | 1% | $204.5K |
James Wood | Polymarket | 1% | $9.4K |
Munetaka Murakami | Polymarket | 1% | $9.1K |
Aaron Judge | Polymarket | 1% | $4.7K |
Ben Rice | Polymarket | 1% | $2.6K |
Shohei Ohtani | Polymarket | 1% | $2.1K |
Nick Kurtz | Polymarket | 1% | $1.5K |
Shea Langeliers | Polymarket | 1% | $1.3K |
Elly De La Cruz | Polymarket | 1% | $1.3K |
Eugenio Suarez | Polymarket | 1% | $922 |
Sal Stewart | Polymarket | 1% | $827 |
Cal Raleigh | Polymarket | 1% | $772 |
Jordan Walker | Polymarket | 1% | $734 |
Giancarlo Stanton | Polymarket | 1% | $664 |
Rafael Devers | Polymarket | 1% | $659 |
Manny Machado | Polymarket | 1% | $547 |
George Springer | Polymarket | 1% | $535 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence is keyed on the first 16 of 24 keyable listings on this snapshot (the route's per-request cap); the rest were not read.
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 55/100 · Solid Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $3.2M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 24 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Kyle Schwarber at 60% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The attributed event snapshot reports $3.2M in venue-native volume before close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 60% implied probability for Kyle Schwarber on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Kyle Schwarber closed at just 60%. The attributed event snapshot reports $3.2M in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 60% for Kyle Schwarber. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for MLB: Home Runs Leader?
The market closed with Kyle Schwarber at 60% implied probability on Polymarket. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get MLB: Home Runs Leader right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 60% for Kyle Schwarber. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/mlb-home-runs-leader-odds-2026-09-28?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=mlb-home-runs-leader-odds-2026-09-28">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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