Mayweather vs Pacquiao: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 22, 2026
As of July 22, 2026, the prediction market implies a 69% chance of Floyd Mayweather Jr. — Kalshi 69%, Polymarket 57%, 12 pts apart, on $721.2K in traded volume.
▲ 66% → 69%since July 21, 2026
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Floyd Mayweather Jr. — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $721.2K traded
69%
Implied
Kalshi
69%
Polymarket
57%
Cross-venue gap: Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 12 pts on this outcome — the divergence is the edge. See every gap →
Live market
View the live market on Kalshi
Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
Live markets — full navigation
Every market on this event, streaming — filter by type, tap any row for the live Kalshi & Polymarket price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the July 22, 2026 snapshot · 52/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 29/30 | $721.2K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 4/20 | Kalshi 69% vs Polymarket 57% — a 12-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 5/15 | 3 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 14/15 | 9 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Floyd Mayweather Jr. at 69% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The two venues disagree by 12 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence worth watching.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Wednesday, July 22 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Floyd Mayweather Jr. the favorite in Mayweather vs Pacquiao, pricing the outcome at 69% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Wednesday, July 22. Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 12 pts on the favorite — that gap is the cross-venue read. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 3 tracked markets, $721K has changed hands on this event — moderate trading. Floyd Mayweather Jr. leads at 69%, a strong favorite, ahead of Manny Pacquiao at 34%. The two venues disagree by 12 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence that can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 69% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 69¢ implies a 69% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, July 22; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line, and compare the two venues before assuming the gap is free money.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mayweather vs Pacquiao?
As of Wednesday, July 22, Kalshi and Polymarket price Floyd Mayweather Jr. at 69% implied probability, though Kalshi and Polymarket differ by 12 points. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Floyd Mayweather Jr.?
The prediction market implies a 69% chance of Floyd Mayweather Jr. on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Wednesday, July 22 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. Right now they diverge by 12 points, which can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
Read on the WireEmbed this market
Put this live odds card on your site, newsletter, or blog — it refreshes as the market moves. Works anywhere you can paste an iframe (Substack, WordPress, Ghost, Webflow), and the attribution links back to the full W.E.T. breakdown. Browse widgets for every market on the widget gallery.
Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/mayweather-vs-pacquiao-odds-2026-09-20" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Mayweather vs Pacquiao — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/mayweather-vs-pacquiao-odds-2026-09-20?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=mayweather-vs-pacquiao-odds-2026-09-20">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.