LoL: LGD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
By Corbin V King · Updated August 3, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 3, 2026) was a 35% implied probability for Match Winner on Polymarket, with $2.1M in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Match Winner — market favorite
Polymarket · $2.1M reported volume
35%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
LoL
2 categories priced
Still contested
2
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group
JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Groupsettled
Contested- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?52%
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
- Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
- Odd/Even Total Kills50%
- Odd/Even Total Kills50%
- Game 1 Winner35%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
LGD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendsettled
Contested- Game 1 Winner99%
- O/U 2.5 Games99%
- First Blood in Game 2?99%
- First Blood in Game 1?99%
- Odd/Even Total Kills99%
- Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 3, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Game 1 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 99% | $830K |
Match Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 35% | $316.7K |
Game 2 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 1% | $912.8K |
O/U 2.5 Games Totals | Polymarket | 99% | $2.8K |
First Blood in Game 2? | Polymarket | 99% | $699 |
First Blood in Game 1? | Polymarket | 99% | $20 |
Odd/Even Total Kills | Polymarket | 99% | — |
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | Polymarket | 50% | — |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 50/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $2.1M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Match Winner at 35% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The attributed event snapshot reports $2.1M in venue-native volume.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 35% implied probability for Match Winner on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Match Winner closed at just 35%. The attributed event snapshot reports $2.1M in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 35% for Match Winner. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for LoL: LGD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend?
The market closed with Match Winner at 35% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get LoL: LGD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 35% for Match Winner. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
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