Grok 4.6 released by...? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated August 17, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 17, 2026) was a 91% implied probability for August 21 on Polymarket, with $175.5K in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
August 21 — market favorite
Polymarket · $175.5K reported volume
91%
Implied
Timing — when the market expects this
Implied median
not by Aug 14
the curve never reaches 50% on the priced rungs
Steepest window
Aug 13 → Aug 14
+29 points, the biggest jump
Rungs
4
deadlines priced
These rungs disagree with each other — a nearer deadline is priced above a later one, which cannot both be true. Usually a stale quote on a thin rung. The points are shown; no curve is drawn through them.
Each point is a market: the probability this has happened by that date. The curve can only rise, so its steepest stretch is the window the market is pricing.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 17, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
August 21 | Polymarket | 91% | $21.4K |
August 14 | Polymarket | 85% | $52.3K |
August 13 | Polymarket | 56% | $30.1K |
August 12 | Polymarket | 29% | $20.6K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 36/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 22/30 | $175.5K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 6/15 | 4 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: August 21 at 91% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The attributed event snapshot reports $175.5K in venue-native volume.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 91% implied probability for August 21 on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: August 21 at 91% implied probability. The attributed event snapshot reports $175.5K in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 91% for August 21. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Tech odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Grok 4.6 released by?
The market closed with August 21 at 91% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Grok 4.6 released by right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 91% for August 21. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners
An educational guide to how traders approach prediction markets: news catalysts, value versus the crowd, venue divergence, sizing, and beginner mistakes.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/grok-4-6-released-by-odds-2026-08-14?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=grok-4-6-released-by-odds-2026-08-14">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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