334: Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated November 14, 2026
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334: Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke prediction market odds: Stephen Thompson favored at 56% implied probability on one venue listing. Venue-attributed odds, volume…
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →The slate at this observation
Ceremony
334
10 categories priced
Still contested
9
inside 15 points
Tightest
+4
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida: Odds
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds69%
- Donte Johnson65%
- Ends before Round 3?58%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?57%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds56%
- Johnson to win by KO/TKO?43%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds71%
- Ciryl Gane67%
- Ends before Round 5?66%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds62%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?57%
- Gane to win by KO/TKO?44%
+4 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds68%
- Chris Duncan63%
- Ends before Round 3?61%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds53%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?51%
- Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan38%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds74%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds68%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds67%
- Fight to Go the Distance?66%
- Caio Borralho60%
- Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui57%
+6 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon: Odds
Contested- Melquizael Costa78%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds71%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds57%
- Ends before Round 3?50%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?44%
- Costa to win by KO/TKO?41%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds74%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds65%
- Kayla Harrison60%
- Ends before Round 5?58%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds56%
- Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison39%
+9 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds76%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds66%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds64%
- Fight to Go the Distance?60%
- Decision or Draw56%
- Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke55%
+10 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds73%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds62%
- Samuel Sanches53%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds51%
- Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches48%
- Evan Elder48%
+11 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: Odds
Contested- Bilal Hasan89%
- Ends before Round 3?75%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?68%
- Hasan to win by KO/TKO?65%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds64%
- Ends before Round 2?49%
+14 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney: Odds
Clear favourite- Ends before Round 3?91%
- Ends before Round 2?71%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds67%
- Terrance McKinney67%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?53%
- McKinney to win by KO/TKO?46%
+20 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of November 14, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke Moneyline | Polymarket | 55% | $32.3K |
Thompson to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 34% | — |
Radtke to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 31% | — |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 76% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 66% | — |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 64% | $5.5K |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 60% | — |
Decision or Draw | Polymarket | 56% | — |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the November 14, 2026 snapshot · 20/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Kalshi listing prices Stephen Thompson at 56% implied probability.
- Venue volume remains separate because this event combines dollar volume and contract counts.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Saturday, November 14 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Stephen Thompson the favorite in 334: Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke, pricing the outcome at 56% implied probability on one venue listing as of Saturday, November 14. Related venue listings are shown separately; W.E.T. has not confirmed them as the same outcome for a numerical comparison. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 21 tracked market rows, Venue volume remains separate because this event combines dollar volume and contract counts. Stephen Thompson leads at 56%, a clear favorite, ahead of Decision or Draw at 56%. Related venue listings remain separate until the canonical graph confirms outcome and settlement-basis equivalence.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 56% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 56¢ implies a 56% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Saturday, November 14; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 334: Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?
As of Saturday, November 14, One venue listing prices Stephen Thompson at 56% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Stephen Thompson?
The prediction market implies a 56% chance of Stephen Thompson on one venue listing as of Saturday, November 14 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated snapshot records Polymarket only. W.E.T. publishes no cross-venue comparison without the same event, outcome, and resolution terms observed on another venue. W.E.T. publishes them separately until canonical identity and settlement-basis checks confirm that a numerical comparison is valid.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
Read on the WireW.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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Browse fetched venue snapshots, catalysts, and attributed listings. Numerical comparisons remain withheld until the canonical graph confirms the same outcome and settlement basis.