333: Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun: Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated October 27, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (October 27, 2026) was a 70% implied probability for Decision or Draw on Polymarket.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Decision or Draw — market favorite
Polymarket
70%
Implied
The slate at this observation
Ceremony
333
9 categories priced
Still contested
6
inside 15 points
Tightest
+0
Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev: Odds
Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev: Oddssettled
Contested- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev83%
- Ends before Round 3?83%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds63%
- Ends before Round 2?62%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?61%
- Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?56%
+0 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov: Oddssettled
Contested- Asaf Chopurov84%
- O/U 0.5 Rounds83%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds57%
- Ends before Round 3?53%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds44%
- Chopurov to win by KO/TKO?35%
+1 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds76%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?71%
- Ends before Round 3?67%
- Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes65%
- Azamat Murzakanov65%
- Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO?52%
+5 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili: Odds
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds95%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds88%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds81%
- O/U 3.5 Rounds76%
- O/U 4.5 Rounds73%
- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan42%
+7 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds94%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds83%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds74%
- Fight to Go the Distance?71%
- Decision or Draw70%
- Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun59%
+11 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev: Oddssettled
Contested- O/U 0.5 Rounds91%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds78%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds68%
- Fight to Go the Distance?65%
- Decision or Draw64%
- Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev54%
+13 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds93%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds78%
- O/U 2.5 Rounds64%
- Decision or Draw63%
- Fight to Go the Distance?63%
- Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev51%
+15 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds83%
- Kody Steele59%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds57%
- Ends before Round 3?56%
- Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele43%
- Noah Gugnon42%
+24 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita: Oddssettled
Clear favourite- O/U 0.5 Rounds84%
- Aaron Pico59%
- O/U 1.5 Rounds59%
- Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita57%
- Fight won by KO/TKO?56%
- Ends before Round 3?52%
+25 pt margin · 8 nominees · 2 more
Categories represented in this snapshot, tightest observed race first. The lower bar is the runner-up; the gap between them is the recorded margin.
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled October 27, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun Moneyline | Polymarket | 59% | $61.3K |
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 13% | — |
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO? Moneyline | Polymarket | 12% | — |
O/U 0.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 94% | — |
O/U 1.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 83% | — |
O/U 2.5 Rounds Totals | Polymarket | 74% | — |
Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 71% | $272 |
Decision or Draw | Polymarket | 70% | — |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
Evidencestored reads, labeled by measure
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 23/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 3/15 | 2 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Decision or Draw at 70% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 70% at the start of coverage to 70% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 70% implied probability for Decision or Draw on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Decision or Draw at 70% — favored, but not a lock. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; no mixed total is published.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 2 days: Decision or Draw opened our coverage at 70%, ranged between 70% and 70%, and closed at 70%. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun: Odds?
The market closed with Decision or Draw at 70% implied probability on Polymarket. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun: Odds right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 70% for Decision or Draw. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/333-abubakar-vagaev-vs-jacob-malkoun-odds-2026-10-25?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=333-abubakar-vagaev-vs-jacob-malkoun-odds-2026-10-25">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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