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Venue observation · Observed 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC
Evidence
Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.
A genuine toss-up at 47/53.
This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.
Public trade activity is not available from Manifold.
Open each venue’s original listing and settlement rules.
The Signal Sheet
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Refused · no-key-match
no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent
Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs
Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt
Refused · not-configured
The research engine has not been activated.
Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised
As-of time not recorded · unknown
Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row
Refused · no-source
Manifold publishes no rules text through WET's feed
Measured 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC: one listing read; none carries settlement wording
Retires when the venue feed carries rules text for this listing (only Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini, Futuur and Polymarket US populate it today)