W.E.T. Washington Week Index: methodology

The W.E.T. Washington Week Index is a daily 0–100 reading of what prediction markets are pricing on the near-term US political calendar.

Components

Active politics markets resolving within roughly three months on concrete calendar events — signatures, confirmations, votes, executive orders, tariff actions, meetings and shutdown deadlines.

Value

The volume-weighted mean implied probability across those calendar events, 0–100. High means the market expects things to actually happen on schedule. No single market may exceed its weight cap (excess redistributed), so one whale contract can't be the index. Each real-world event contributes once, through its leading qualifying market. When too few qualifying markets are live, the index reports insufficient data rather than a number.

Publication & freshness

Computed and published daily to a durable, dated snapshot; the "last moved" date advances only on a real move, drivers attribute each daily change to the markets that caused it, and every point is appended to a permanent, citable history.

What this index is not

This is a benchmark reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast and not advice. A high value does not predict that the event happens — it reports what prediction-market traders are collectively pricing right now. Prices move continuously and can be wrong.

An accuracy record for a benchmark requires resolved outcomes accumulated over time. W.E.T. publishes this index daily with a dated, immutable history from first publication — that published series is the audit trail. Calibration analysis will ship strictly when the resolved-outcome corpus supports it, never before. See the site methodology for the same discipline applied to the W.E.T. Score.