Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Superseded · no longer on the board
This reading predates the desk’s current standard — it carries no compiled methodology, no inverse twin and no failure ladder. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It rejoins the board the day its methodology is compiled and ratified. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Washington Week Index
v1SlateWeeklyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 21, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Quiet → Active)
How much the market is pricing on the near-term Washington calendar.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends -28.0% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give -55.9% — a 28-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 6
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 6
- Settled
- 8
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 6 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 60c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES60c44c−26.9%12.7%Polymarket ↗
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 15c5 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 115.0k/12.2k within 5¢polymarketYES15c1c−93.3%12.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?polymarket · YES · entry 10c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c3c−67.9%12.7%Polymarket ↗
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 73c6 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 21.6k/12.0k within 5¢polymarketYES73c3c−96.3%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?polymarket · YES · entry 18c6 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 9.1k/3.8k within 5¢polymarketYES18c3c−83.4%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bill Walker advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 25c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES25c30c+20.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Very low
- 40d Range
- 1935
- Percentile
- 15th
- 8d Change
- −1.7
- Volatility
- 1.3 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 10
- Effective N
- 5.3
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 10 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 10/14
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.5562
Daily close
40d published · interactive40 published close(s) — 0–100 (Quiet → Active). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 40d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 40 readings, slope -0.24/day, projection σ 1.5 pts/d widened for a 40-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 10 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
5 of 10 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Over the next year, will Americans trust their government more or less?
More — trust starts to recoverLess — trust keeps fallingWill the federal government shut down again before the end of 2027?
No — Congress keeps it fundedYes — another shutdown happens
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WDCW · at a glance
- What it is
- The near-term Washington calendar — what the market thinks lands this month.
- High vs low
- Higher = the near-term Washington calendar is pricing action. Lower = quiet.
- Who cares
- Policy desks and political reporters pricing the immediate legislative and executive calendar.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Washington Week Index (WDCW) prints a WET Index Score of 19.8/100 (Very low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.