W.E.T. Fed Path Index: methodology

The W.E.T. Fed Path Index is a daily 0–100 reading of how strongly prediction markets are pricing Federal Reserve easing (rate cuts).

Components

Each day the index pulls active markets from the economics category and keeps only those whose question is a rate-cut question. Tightening-axis questions (hikes, "raise rates") and inverse questions ("no rate cuts") are excluded so the index measures a single axis: YES = easing.

Value

Each rate event contributes once, through its leading cut market. We read that market's implied YES probability (0–1) and take the volume-weighted mean across events, expressed 0–100. A reading near 100 means markets are heavily pricing near-term cuts; near 0 means markets see the Fed on hold or tightening. With fewer than two qualifying events live, the index reports insufficient data.

Publication & freshness

Computed and published daily to a durable, dated snapshot; the "last moved" date advances only on a ≥0.5-point change, and every point is appended to a permanent history.

What this index is not

This is a benchmark reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast and not advice. A high value does not predict that the event happens — it reports what prediction-market traders are collectively pricing right now. Prices move continuously and can be wrong.

An accuracy record for a benchmark requires resolved outcomes accumulated over time. W.E.T. publishes this index daily with a dated, immutable history from first publication — that published series is the audit trail. Calibration analysis will ship strictly when the resolved-outcome corpus supports it, never before. See the site methodology for the same discipline applied to the W.E.T. Score.