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Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Prediction Market

politicsPolymarket · selected venue

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

No additional matching venue quote is available for this outcome yet.

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$565.5K volume· Resolves Mar 2· Venue-attributed quote refreshes every 8s

Yes0%No100%

Venue observation · Observation time unavailable

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:10:43.947 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Weather — official station context

Data

Refused · no-key-match

Select a verified listing with its explicit station association, local contract day and retained native source rules.

Availability details

Retires when A selected verified listing has a source-backed station key and a readable, pinned station collection.

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2027-03-02 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market…
Full text
will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)

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Evidence

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Community Read

— yes · 0 votes

WET InsightVenue-attributed

Market backs No at 100% — all but decided.

This read covers the selected venue quote. See the venue evidence for related contracts.
Moderate liquidity · 112 days to resolution.

WET Odds

Selected venue snapshot

Yes

100%

Polymarket (global)0%$565.5K$68.5K liquidity

This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.

Live Trades

Polymarket tape · Yes

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Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record · YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

View venue listings

Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:10:43.947 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Weather — official station context

Data

Refused · no-key-match

Select a verified listing with its explicit station association, local contract day and retained native source rules.

Availability details

Retires when A selected verified listing has a source-backed station key and a readable, pinned station collection.

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2027-03-02 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market…
Full text
will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)

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