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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 45% of the popul…

electionsKalshi · selected venue

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Selected contract: At least 45%

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Yes40%No60%

Bid/ask midpoint · WET received 2026-09-29 05:04 UTC

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Native contract response received 2026-09-29 05:04:12.266 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: one listing key checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2027-10-04 14:00 UTCKalshi contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Kalshi: If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 45% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's share of the valid votes cast in the first round, calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Su…
Full text
perior Eleitoral, not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing

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Evidence

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Community Read

— yes · 0 votes

WET InsightVenue-attributed

Market backs No at 60% — a slight lean.

This read covers the selected venue quote. See the venue evidence for related contracts.
Thin book — moves cheaply.

WET Odds

Selected venue snapshot

Yes

40%

60%

Kalshi40%400 contracts$0 liquidity

This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.

Live Trades

Kalshi tape · Yes

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Native contract response received 2026-09-29 05:04:12.266 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: one listing key checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2027-10-04 14:00 UTCKalshi contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Kalshi: If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 45% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's share of the valid votes cast in the first round, calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Su…
Full text
perior Eleitoral, not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing

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