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Will Pablo Marçal finish 4th in the first round of the 2026 Braz…

electionsKalshi · selected venue

Will Pablo Marçal finish 4th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Selected contract: Pablo Marçal

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Yes3.5%No96.5%

Bid/ask midpoint · WET received 2026-09-29 04:05 UTC

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Native contract response received 2026-09-29 04:05:07.994 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: one listing key checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2027-10-04 14:00 UTCKalshi contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Kalshi: If Pablo Marçal finishes in 4th place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For a two-round system where this event specifies the first round: rank is based on certified first-round vote count or percentage In case of an exact tie for fourth place, markets resolve proportionally, $1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down. A candidate not listed on this event who finishes fourth makes every named market resolve NO. Candidates who w…
Full text
ithdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve NO.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing: View on Kalshi

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Evidence

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Community Read

— yes · 0 votes

WET InsightVenue-attributed

Market backs No at 96.5% — all but decided.

This read covers the selected venue quote. See the venue evidence for related contracts.
Thin book — moves cheaply.

WET Odds

Selected venue snapshot

Yes

3.5%

96.5%

Kalshi3.5%—$0 liquidity

This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.

Live Trades

Kalshi tape · Yes

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View on KalshiYES sideSelected venue

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Native contract response received 2026-09-29 04:05:07.994 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-09-29 00:20 UTC: one listing key checked against 1581 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Datarelated measurement

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026Electionpresident · brazilevent identity
2027-10-04 14:00 UTCKalshi contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Kalshi: If Pablo Marçal finishes in 4th place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For a two-round system where this event specifies the first round: rank is based on certified first-round vote count or percentage In case of an exact tie for fourth place, markets resolve proportionally, $1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down. A candidate not listed on this event who finishes fourth makes every named market resolve NO. Candidates who w…
Full text
ithdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve NO.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing: View on Kalshi

Actions